Sasol R300: oil windfall, debt & the dividend return

Simon BrownLatest, WorldWide Markets

🇧🇷 Chart of the week: a US-dollar Brazil ETF drops 19.8%
⛽ Sasol’s round trip: from R250 to R50 and back to R300
🛢️ Why Brent is $115 when flows are back to pre-war levels
🇨🇳 China’s destocking and EV shift: reasons oil isn’t higher
🎲 3 scenarios: grinding normalisation, escalation & fast peace
🧮 Sasol’s sensitivities, HEPS scenarios and the dividend maths
🎯 Analyst targets & verdict: hold R290, buy R210–R230
🎙️ 700 episodes: Classic FM in ’08 to the podcast today

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Boxer Earns More Per Rand. So Why Can’t It Catch Shoprite?

Simon BrownLatest, WorldWide Markets

🇫🇷 French 10-year at 4.8%, back at early-2000s levels
🔁 How rising yields create a negative debt feedback loop
🛒 Boxer | Shoprite: size, margin, stores, valuation
🧮 Can Boxer catch Shoprite? The compounding maths says no
📦 Trade of the week: Amazon is all about robotics

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Naspers & Prosus: down 50% in a year; half price, or half the story?

Simon BrownLatest, WorldWide Markets

📉 Chart of the week: Top 40
🔍 Why Naspers and Prosus are down 50%
🧮 The discount maths
🔄 Buybacks on buybacks on buybacks
🤖 Tencent’s capex surge: is this Meta in 2022?
🍔 Just Eat Takeaway back to growth
🍔 iFood holding its ground in Brazil
⚖️ Bull case, bear case & what changes the story

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Record car sales, falling motor stocks: Motus, CMH, WeBuyCars and Zeda

Simon BrownLatest, WorldWide Markets

📈 Chart of the week: US unemployment at 4.2%
🚗 September NAAMSA sales: 61,645 units
🔍 Rental fleets flatters the headline?
🇨🇳 Chinese brands at ~16% of sales, and the R55k used-car gap
🏷️ WeBuyCars’ margin squeeze
🔋 NEVs: hybrid first, EVs later

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Two Education Stocks. Both Expensive. Which is the Smart One to Own?

Simon BrownLatest, WorldWide Markets

🏦 MPC hikes 25bp prime 10.75%, gov bond yields rising
📈 Stadio’s index inclusion: R387m traded R2.5m average
📊 ADvTECH vs Stadio side by side: ~10x vs ~20x EBITDA
🏫 Private schooling in SA at 5.5% against 17% globally
🎓 345k bachelor passes, 235k public university seats
🚀 University status: the catalyst still stuck at minister’s desk
✅ The verdict: which one to own, and at what price

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PGMs: the white metal, the dynamics, and the miners

Simon BrownLatest, WorldWide Markets

🏦 A unanimous quarter-point hike from the FOMC
💱 The rand is not just stronger, it is markedly less volatile
📉 Platinum: all-time high in January, down almost 50%
🔁 From a 1.5m ounce deficit to a 265,000 ounce surplus
🚗 EVs were never the threat
🤖 The AI build-out needs PGMs: ruthenium and iridium
🤝 Northam has been approached
⛏️ The five miners side by side

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Is there value in Shoprite at all-time highs?

Simon BrownLatest, WorldWide Markets

📉 The US 10-year above 5%
⛽ A 364c/l petrol under-recovery and 348–396c/l on diesel
🛒 Shoprite at all-time highs: HEPS from 1245c to 1527c
🛵 Sixty60; half its customers are new to Checkers
☕ The super app: Buy everything in one place
⚠️ The bear case, four competitors off a low base
📊 Stocks on the move

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Oil, elections, rates and gold: the four things that matter

Simon BrownLatest, WorldWide Markets

🛢️ Why losing 20% of global oil supply only took Brent to $120
🇨🇳 China’s strategic reserve, the Taiwan question
🗳️ Two elections in two days: US midterms & SA local gov
📈 The bond market as the real canary: $40 trillion of US debt
🥇 Gold at $4,600 after a round trip from $5,500 to $4,000

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Ranking JSE gold miners as the yellow metal is on the move

Simon BrownLatest, WorldWide Markets

🏛️ Scott Bessent vs the bond market & why the market wins
🥇 Gold back at $4,630, rand gold price at R2.387million/KG
📊 Pan African, DRD, Harmony, GoldFields and AngloGold
🚩 Red flags: Harmony’s collar, GoldFields’ Ghana lease
📉 Naspers breaking lower and Clicks still falling

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Cheap for a Reason: ABSA versus Nedbank. Which to buy?

Simon BrownLatest, WorldWide Markets

🏦 Absa vs Nedbank: two banks with almost identical numbers
🌍 Absa’s rest-of-Africa vs Nedbank buying into East Africa
📊 Price targets and charts — and why the charts say Nedbank
🗂️ ETF database upgrade — 142 ETFs, June data, MDD links
🛢️ 60 days of peace expired: Brent above $90, fuel up
📈 Global yields at 2008 levels the debt story will not go away
🛒 Stocks on the move: Mr Price, Shoprite, Clicks, Woolworths

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