🇿🇦 South African Budget & Political Risk
- Budget framework passed (barely) – VAT increase to 15.5% effective 1 May.
- GNU under pressure as ANC signals reformulation talks with partners.
- Rand volatility: Touched nearly R19.90/USD before recovering to ~R18.70.
💥 Global Markets in Turmoil
- S&P 500 down 18.25%, Nasdaq down 22.5%.
- Massive selloff: One of the steepest 4-day drops since 1950.
- But historically, markets rebound over 1, 3, and 5 years post similar dips.
S&P500 | Weekly | 08 April 2025
🇺🇸 US Tariffs – Trump’s Economic Disruption
- 104% tariffs on Chinese goods kick in; highest in 100+ years.
- Aimed at reshaping global trade, raising revenue (~$600B–$1T est).
- Massive uncertainty over whether Trump reverses course.
- Impacts already visible: Nintendo delays Switch 2 US preorders.
🌐 Global Repercussions & Recession Risk
- Supply chain shocks, rising costs, and job losses in producing countries (Vietnam, China).
- Major US banks now see a >55% chance of global recession.
- Countries shifting alliances; US being carved out.
🏦 US Treasuries Drama
- Wild 10-year yield swings overnight – unusual volume raises eyebrows.
- Could China be retaliating by offloading US debt?
That $9.2 trillion in debt the U.S. needs to refinance this year just got a whole lot more expensive overnight. The answer to your question lies, firstly, in who holds enough U.S. debt to move the needle like this, and secondly, whether they might be a little unhappy. pic.twitter.com/hhZokVqQWL
— Schalk Louw | Mr Louwcal 🇿🇦 (@SchalkLouw) April 9, 2025
💡 What To Do As An Investor
- Avoid panic. Focus on quality and defensive stocks.
- Opportunities:
- SA: Capitec, Shoprite*, BIDCorp, RSA Retail Savings Bonds
- Global: Ferrari (Race), Johnson & Johnson*, ASML*, Europe*
- Sectors: Healthcare (STXHLT), Tobacco, Alcohol, Staples
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Chapters
00:00 Market Overview and Budget Implications
02:59 Global Economic Concerns and Market Reactions
05:54 Trade Wars and Tariff Impacts
09:10 Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times
12:04 Sector Analysis: Opportunities and Risks
14:58 Future Market Predictions and Closing Thoughts
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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
