JSE Direct with Simon Brown

Podcast: Miners catch-22

In JSE Direct, Latest by Simon Brown

Simon Shares

  • #WhatsAppStokvel This is a scam, of course it is. You’re only asking because you know it is and you’re hoping somebody will give you ‘permission’ to go ahead anyway. Anything that requires you to recruit others in order for you to profit is always 100% a scam.
  • Long4Life* (JSE code: L4L) upping their stake in Spur (JSE code: SUR) to over 10%. Is it a pure valuation play or does Joffe have something bigger in mind?
  • Brexit, tic toc. Three weeks to go.
  • Clicks (JSE code: CLS) issued an improved and updated trading update that sent the share to new all-time highs. One can argue about valuations here, but not the quality. Clicks is best of breed.
  • 4Sight (JSE code: 4SI) was a stock i warned against since day one. Far too much jargon and hype that have not turned into profits. But go read the resignation letter of Geoffrey Carter from 7 October. Man is he maximum unhappy.
  • I am doing an ALMI trading demonstration webcast on 28 October at 8.15am Book here.
  • Will Trump juice the markets? A few people pointed out that maybe China will not want to do an agreement to hurt Trump and maybe get a democratic party winner in 2020. certainly possible.
  • Understanding your statement.
  • Understanding momentum ETFs.
  • Up coming events;

* I hold ungeared positions.



Commodity miners catch 22

Implats (JSE code: IMP) is buying a Canadian palladium miner for some R11.5billion.
Now the deal looks decent, 3m ounces producing about 220k a year with an all in sustainable cost of some $820 and making EBITDA of some R1.6billion a year, so PE of 7x.

But those numbers are all grand with palladium just off all-time highs of $1,700. What happens when palladium falls?

Palladium weekly

Palladium weekly

This is the challenge of single commodity miners. You can’t buy at the bottom because you have no money, but buying at the top screams a ‘hail mary’ pass.

The catch 22 is how else do miners grow? Every day the mine they lose some value as they mine reserves.

Maybe the smallish size of this deal is what saves it?


JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Upcoming webinars

Click here to meet the Just One Lap team at one of our live, free events.

Subscribe to Just One Lap