It's been a year, but markets loved it

Worldwide Markets – Episode 659 Show Notes

“It’s Been a Year… But Markets Loved It”

📆 3 December 2025
🎙️ Host: Simon Brown
🏦 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft — the global money app.

🌍 Opening: A Wild Year That Somehow Ended Beautifully

Despite chaos from January to April — tariffs, collapsing markets, surging yields, rand at 19.90 — markets still delivered a stellar year.
If you had gone on holiday 1 Jan and checked your portfolio today, you’d think it was a boring year… but Yowza! It was anything but.
Reminder: Wall Street ≠ Main Street — markets often move ahead of economic reality.

🤖 AI Chaos in January: DeepSeek Shakes the Market

Chinese model DeepSeek stunned the AI world, training for ~$6m vs OpenAI’s multi-billion dollar spend.
Raised questions: cheaper API access, open-source surge, China’s rapid AI emergence.
Set the tone for a year of AI leapfrogging between global players.

🇺🇸 The Trump Factor: Tariffs Everywhere

Trump sworn in (20 Jan) → tariffs on Mexico & Canada within days.
Tore up the post-WW2 geopolitical playbook → raised questions of US reliability going forward.
Triggered global uncertainty but markets… shrugged.

🇿🇦 Local Madness: The Three Budget Attempts

SA tried three times to get a budget passed.
Rand collapses into “Liberation Tariff Day”, hits 19.90 → quickly followed by “90 deals in 90 days” promises.
Only three months in and the year was already unhinged.

📉 April Market Meltdown… Followed by a Stunning Recovery

US 10-yr at 4.5%, US equities down 15%, local markets collapsing, bonds selling off.
By December → Nikkei near highs, Europe at highs, JSE powered by gold, US pushed by the Mag 7.
Markets looked glorious by year-end, despite everything.

🎙️ Upcoming: Best-Performing JSE Stocks of 2025

Spoiler: Gold miners will dominate.
Full breakdown coming next week in the final show of 2025.

🖼️ NanoBanana & Gemini: AI Image Tools Blow Simon’s Mind

Simon has used DALL·E heavily for two years — but:
- ❌ slow
- ❌ bad at text
- ❌ struggles with edits
NanoBanana + Gemini 3:
- ⚡ insanely fast
- 🔠 perfect text edits
- 🎨 clean output
Alphabet has:
- 💰 massive free cash flow
- 🌐 billions of users
- 📢 advertising infrastructure
→ Giving them a potential edge in AI monetisation (for now).

📈 AI Stock Bubble: Is It Popping?

Nvidia chart not bearish — holding support around 165–166 and bouncing.
Mag 7 vs 200-day moving average:
- ⬇️ Only Meta is below.
- Microsoft, Amazon still comfortably above.
Conclusion:
- 🤯 We are in a bubble… but it’s not bursting yet.
- More insights coming in the Power Hour.

Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025

🪙 Bitcoin: The Chart Looks Ugly

Trump is the most pro-crypto president ever, but BTC isn’t reacting positively.
Peaked at $126k in October → now around $87k.
Breaking support levels:
- ⚠️ If current zone doesn’t hold → sub-$70k likely.
Gold vs Bitcoin comparison:
- 🥇 Gold behaves like a hedge.
- ₿ Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a store of value or inflation hedge.

Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025

🇿🇦 South African GDP: Some Bright Spots

Q3 2025 GDP:

📈 +0.5% QoQ
📈 +2.1% YoY
🚧 Gross fixed capital formation +1.6% → first strong rise since Q2 2023.
- Means: building → roads, dams, solar, infrastructure — very positive.

🏦 Banks Benefit Most

Reasons:

👍 GDP uptick
⬆️ Credit upgrades
⬇️ Lower expected inflation
⬇️ Lower rates coming
🟩 Off the grey list

Valuations:

Price-to-book: 1.0–1.5×
Yields: high single digits
Winners depend on style:
- 💸 Deep value → ABSA, Nedbank
- ⚖️ Balanced → Standard Bank, FNB
- 🦄 Premium → Capitec (always expensive)

🏢 Shaftesbury (UK REIT): One to Watch

Formerly Capital & Counties.
Own Covent Garden & key West End locations.
Never recovered from Brexit: from £4 → now £1.42.
Fundamentals:
- 💰 Single-digit PE (~8)
- 📉 Yield 2.7%
- 📊 Analyst range: £1.48–£2.10
Not a buy yet — but on the watchlist due to prime assets.

🏘️ SA Property: The Easy Money Is Gone

SA REITs had:
- 🚀 Huge 2024
- 📈 Strong 2025
Many now trade around NAV:
- Storage, Spear, Vukile → at/near NAV
- Octodec → still at discount
Simon prefers 15% discount to NAV before buying.
Markets have closed the gap — valuations now full.
If REITs move to 10–15% premiums, Simon will run.

🔮 Next Week: Final Show of 2025

Full list of best and worst JSE performers of the year.
Small caps that surprised everyone.
Then → back week of 12 Jan with Marc Ashton & Keith McLachlan for the annual predictions episode.

👋 Wrap-Up

A shorter show this week, but packed with market insight, AI breakthroughs, Bitcoin trouble, UK property opportunities, and SA’s slow-but-positive GDP recovery.

As always:
💙 Look after yourself.
🤝 And if you can, look after someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Subscribe to our feed here
Subscribe or review us in iTunes
Subscribe in Spotify here.
Subscribe in YouTube here.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

JSE Direct Podcast

Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.

Contact Simon
More about Simon

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.