๐๏ธ Worldwide Markets โ Episode 665
๐
11 February | ๐ง Recorded Tuesday around lunchtime
๐ผ Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft
๐ This week in markets
- Massive hyperscaler CapEx is back in focus ๐ฐ๐๏ธ
- Markets appear calmer โ the worst of the recent collapse may be behind us ๐ฎโ๐จ
- Bitcoin mining costs now around $70,000, putting pressure on miners โ๏ธโฟ
- A deep dive into junior miners โ why so many of them struggle โ๏ธ๐
๐๏ธ Hyperscalers go full throttle
- 2025 CapEx spend near $380bn, well above expectations
- 2026 estimates push towards $660bn when Oracle is included
- The hyperscalers:
- Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon โ๏ธ
- The โshovel sellersโ:
- Nvidia*, ASML*, TSMC ๐งโ๐ญ๐ช
- Key shift: these businesses are no longer asset-light
- Warning signs emerge as some stocks trade below their 200-day moving averages โ ๏ธ๐
โNothing good happens below the 200-day.โ
๐ Stocks & charts
- Microsoft & Meta showing the most technical stress
- Nvidia* and ASML* still look healthy on the charts โ
- Apple largely staying out of the AI CapEx frenzy ๐
- 1nvest ETF5IT*: profits taken previously, now watching closely ๐
๐ค Software shock & AI disruption
- Growing fear around software-as-a-service under pressure
- New AI tools like Claude and โvibe codingโ spooking SaaS names ๐ป๐ฌ
- Reality check:
- Niche software may struggle
- Enterprise platforms (e.g. Salesforce-type businesses) are harder to replace
๐ช Bitcoin, gold & currencies
- Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, now rebounded to mid-$60k
- Mining economics tight at current prices โ ๏ธ
- Gold back above $5,000, refusing to consolidate ๐ฅ๐ฅ
- Ongoing dollar weakness and rand strength ๐ตโฌ๏ธ ๐ฟ๐ฆโฌ๏ธ
๐ The debasement trade
- Signs of slow de-dollarisation and capital moving out of US Treasuries
- China reportedly limiting (not stopping) US bond buying ๐จ๐ณ๐
- Key takeaway:
- This is a multi-decade trend, not a short-term trade ๐ข
- Governments reduce debt via:
- Inflation
- Currency weakness
๐ฅ๏ธ A possible opportunity: servers
- Hyperscalers replacing ageing chips & servers faster than expected
- Alphabet spending up to $185bn, with ~โ just on replacement ๐
- Question raised: Is Dell a quiet AI beneficiary? ๐ฅ๏ธ๐ฆ
- Forward PE near 10
- Analysts broadly constructive
โ๏ธ Junior miners: why itโs so hard
- Spotlight on Copper 360, Orion, ASP Isotopes*
- The commodity may be in the ground โ but:
- Extraction is complex
- Capital is hard to raise
- Logistics, infrastructure & communities matter ๐ง
- Junior mining = high risk by design ๐ข
- Even experienced operators fail
๐ข Events & deadlines
- Power Hour โ 19 February
๐ 17:30 | ๐ป Webinar or ๐ข Rosebank- Tax-free investing beyond TFSA
- ETFs, income strategies & Reg 28
- Important reminder โฐ
- Many providers have early contribution deadlines
- Donโt leave Reg 28 or TFSA top-ups to the last minute
๐ More info: justonelap.com/events
๐ Wrapping up
- CapEx boom isnโt over โ but cracks are forming
- AI demand strong, real ROI still unproven
- Junior miners remain speculative and unforgiving
- Stay cautious, stay curious
โLook after yourself โ and if you can, look after someone else too.โ โค๏ธ
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WorldWide Markets Podcast
Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brownโs WorldWide Markets podcast (previously JSE Direct). JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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