🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 665
📅 11 February | 🎧 Recorded Tuesday around lunchtime
💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft
🌍 This week in markets
- Massive hyperscaler CapEx is back in focus 💰🏗️
- Markets appear calmer – the worst of the recent collapse may be behind us 😮💨
- Bitcoin mining costs now around $70,000, putting pressure on miners ⛏️₿
- A deep dive into junior miners – why so many of them struggle ⚒️📉
🏗️ Hyperscalers go full throttle
- 2025 CapEx spend near $380bn, well above expectations
- 2026 estimates push towards $660bn when Oracle is included
- The hyperscalers:
- Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon ☁️
- The “shovel sellers”:
- Nvidia*, ASML*, TSMC 🧑🏭🪓
- Key shift: these businesses are no longer asset-light
- Warning signs emerge as some stocks trade below their 200-day moving averages ⚠️📉
“Nothing good happens below the 200-day.”
📊 Stocks & charts
- Microsoft & Meta showing the most technical stress
- Nvidia* and ASML* still look healthy on the charts ✅
- Apple largely staying out of the AI CapEx frenzy 🍏
- 1nvest ETF5IT*: profits taken previously, now watching closely 👀
🤖 Software shock & AI disruption
- Growing fear around software-as-a-service under pressure
- New AI tools like Claude and “vibe coding” spooking SaaS names 💻😬
- Reality check:
- Niche software may struggle
- Enterprise platforms (e.g. Salesforce-type businesses) are harder to replace
🪙 Bitcoin, gold & currencies
- Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, now rebounded to mid-$60k
- Mining economics tight at current prices ⚠️
- Gold back above $5,000, refusing to consolidate 🥇🔥
- Ongoing dollar weakness and rand strength 💵⬇️ 🇿🇦⬆️
🌐 The debasement trade
- Signs of slow de-dollarisation and capital moving out of US Treasuries
- China reportedly limiting (not stopping) US bond buying 🇨🇳📉
- Key takeaway:
- This is a multi-decade trend, not a short-term trade 🐢
- Governments reduce debt via:
- Inflation
- Currency weakness
🖥️ A possible opportunity: servers
- Hyperscalers replacing ageing chips & servers faster than expected
- Alphabet spending up to $185bn, with ~⅓ just on replacement 🔁
- Question raised: Is Dell a quiet AI beneficiary? 🖥️📦
- Forward PE near 10
- Analysts broadly constructive
⚒️ Junior miners: why it’s so hard
- Spotlight on Copper 360, Orion, ASP Isotopes*
- The commodity may be in the ground – but:
- Extraction is complex
- Capital is hard to raise
- Logistics, infrastructure & communities matter 🚧
- Junior mining = high risk by design 🎢
- Even experienced operators fail
📢 Events & deadlines
- Power Hour – 19 February
🕠 17:30 | 💻 Webinar or 🏢 Rosebank- Tax-free investing beyond TFSA
- ETFs, income strategies & Reg 28
- Important reminder ⏰
- Many providers have early contribution deadlines
- Don’t leave Reg 28 or TFSA top-ups to the last minute
👉 More info: justonelap.com/events
🙌 Wrapping up
- CapEx boom isn’t over – but cracks are forming
- AI demand strong, real ROI still unproven
- Junior miners remain speculative and unforgiving
- Stay cautious, stay curious
“Look after yourself — and if you can, look after someone else too.” ❤️
All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
WorldWide Markets Podcast
Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s WorldWide Markets podcast (previously JSE Direct). JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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