Trump wins, now what?
Simon Shares
- Astoria (JSE code: ARA) backs down from its incentive scheme that could have seen up to 25% of new shares issued to directors.
- Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) = very good. Spar (JSE code: SPP) update = good. Massmart (JSE code: MSM) = poor. Truworths (JSE code: TRU) = horrid. Food doing alright, clothing really struggling.
- The downgrade and your ETF portfolio.
- Up coming events;
Brexit, Trump. What’s next?
Trump wins, pollsters and social media are amazed. But is it our fault? I tweeted
The problem with SM is that we follow our own echo chamber .. all sides are here in equal measure, yet we only follow the side we agree with
— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 9, 2016
We believe our own BS. I said way back in February that Trump could win, I wasn’t predicting anything but rather understanding that our ability to see into the future is zero and as always we need resilient portfolios that withstand the surprises. If your portfolio is all gold because of the end of the world you’re having a good day but a really bad decade. iI your portfolio is all US stocks because SA is toast you have a good run post the crisis, but now? We need a broad, robust thoughtful portfolio that can withstand downgrades, Brexits and Trump victories.
Uncertainty is the only certainty. Recession in the US within a year? No idea. USD weaker, who really knows? Republicans are good for stock markets say the pundits, what of Clinton 1994-2001 and Obama 2008-present? Don’t fall into the stereo types.
Bottom line. Don’t panic. Predictions about the immediate future are like predicting election results.
Are we seeing a swing globally to the right, what you think politically about that doesn’t matter, what matters is how this impacts the global economy and it will be about barriers. Barriers to free trade, barriers to immigration, barriers to the flow of money, ideas and ultimately capitalism. No capitalism is not dead but we may need to rethink our broad investment ideas. There’s no rush, if this is a swing to the right it’s playing out over the next couple of decades.
Download the audio file here or subscribe to our feed here or sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live or subscribe in iTunes.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
