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🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 655

Date: 5 November
Host: Simon Brown
Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, payments & investing.

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🎙️ This Week’s Big Questions

• When will markets crash? 🤯📉
• Will we finally get a sovereign ratings upgrade? 🇿🇦🔼
• Optasia* lists… but no IPO fireworks 💼🔔
• SA vehicle sales accelerate again 🚗📈

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🚀 Shyft Migration Update

If you are an OST/Webtrader/ASI client — but have not yet been notified about migrating to Shyft — that simply means your group is scheduled for 2026, once remaining features roll out.
🔗 Watch the full Power Hour explainer:

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🔔 Optasia* Listing – A Calm Debut

• IPO priced at R19
• Day 1: Opened R20.75 → Closed R19.38 (≈ +2% on a -2% market day)
• No big pop → but not a failure
• Existing shareholders + exec team locked in for 185–360 days
• Market consensus sees R25–R26 within 2–3 years if growth executes

Simon’s stance:
✔️ Applied → got only 14% allocation
✔️ Holding
✔️ Looking to build the position over time

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🚗 SA Vehicle Sales – Strong Again

October sales: 55,960 units
➡️ Best October since 2014
📈 Driven partly by car rental fleets restocking for the holiday season
✅ Still good news for motor retailers

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🇿🇦 Potential Sovereign Ratings Upgrade?

• SA remains junk with Moody’s, Fitch & S&P Global
• Outlooks have shifted flat → positive
• S&P may consider upgrade in November
• MTBPS next week: Expected to show higher-than-budgeted tax revenue
  → Thanks to booming gold & PGM prices ⚒️💰

But…
💬 Citadel’s Maarten Ackerman: “Not so fast — upgrade may still take time.”

Key stat:
Foreigners purchased the most SA government bonds (Aug–Sep) since records began in 1994 — even while we remain junk.

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🪙 Gold – Consolidating at $3,950–$4,050

• Price: $3,964 at recording
• Analyst view (Petri Redelinghuys from Herenya Capital Advisors):
  → Good entry zone for those who missed the earlier run
• Chart setup: Sideways consolidation, waiting for next leg

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🌏 China–US Trade “Peace”?

• Trump offers tariff cuts on fentanyl ingredients
• China offers:
  • Soybean purchases 🌱 (they buy 50% of global supply)
  • Lifting rare earth export restrictions for 1 year 🧲

Reality:
China still holds the real leverage here.

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📉 Market Crash Fears – Let’s Talk About It

✔️ Will markets crash?

Yes. Guaranteed. Always have. Always will.

❓ When?

Nobody knows. Not even the clever people.

🧱 Bull markets climb a wall of worry.

There are always scary headlines.

🎯 Key Takeaways

• Being in cash waiting for the crash is costly.
• Even when crashes happen, markets often do not fall back to where you sold.
• Timing the bottom is even harder.
• If you’re worried → trim, rebalance, don’t go 100% cash.

Stats (S&P 500 historical):

Market Type	Average Length	Average Move
Bull Market 🟢	5.3 years	+254%
Bear Market 🔴	1 year	-31%

Conclusion:
Staying invested wins — unless you’re already drawing retirement income.

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🏁 Final Thoughts

• Markets will crash — we just don’t know when
• Keep investing, keep rebalancing, don’t try to be clever
• And remember: cash is a drag over the long term

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

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JSE Direct Podcast

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Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.

Contact Simon
More about Simon

 

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

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