🎙️ Episode Overview
Simon Brown opens the show with a look at major market movements: Buffett stepping down as CEO, crashing oil, running gold, Palantir earnings, and the upcoming FOMC announcement.
Sponsors: Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft, the global money app.
🧓 Warren Buffett Steps Down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway
- Buffett officially steps aside as CEO at age 94, replaced by Greg Abel.
- Still remains Chairman
- Berkshire A shares up ~44,000% since the 80s
- No dividends ever paid, only share buybacks
- His legacy: simplicity, repeatable process, and long-term vision
- Emphasis on reading years of balance sheets and loving cash flow
- Fun fact: 96% of his net worth came after age 65
🏦 Investing Lessons from Buffett
- Stick to quality companies at reasonable prices
- Focus on permanent capital and compounding
- Keep your process simple and repeatable
- Don’t chase hype — focus on fundamentals
- South Africa’s Chris Seabrooke noted as a local Buffett-like investor
🌸 “Sell in May and Go Away” – Myth Busted
- Simon critiques the old market adage.
- S&P returns from May–October average 0.49%, Nov–Apr average 1.02%
- Transaction costs, taxes, and missed rallies make timing unreliable
- Verdict: It’s a nursery rhyme, not an investment strategy
🛢️ Oil Falling as OPEC Hikes Production
- OPEC+ accelerating production increases
- Brent now ~$60/barrel
Impacts:
- ✅ Good for fuel prices & oil consumers
- ❌ Bad for Sasol (though price hasn’t reacted much)
- 🏚️ Fracking rigs in US may shut down if prices fall further
- Possible geopolitical angle: helping Trump by lowering gas prices
💵 Rand Strengthens
- ZAR at R18.24/USD, nearing a key R18.30 technical level
- Boosted by stronger exports, higher gold prices
- Could trend toward R17 if momentum continues
🪙 Gold Surging Again
- Gold bouncing back above $3,000 after recent dip
- Driven by:
- Central bank buying
- Rebound in ETF inflows (especially in Europe, Asia, and US)
- General inflation and recession fears
- Upcoming FOMC decision adding fuel to the rally
🏛️ FOMC Decision This Week
- Fed expected to hold rates
- US inflation stickiness, strong jobs data, and political independence from Trump all in play
- Simon expects no change but criticizes SARB for being too hawkish despite low SA inflation (2.7%)
🧠 Palantir Results – Big Numbers, Big Risks
- Q1 Revenue up 39% YoY to $884M
- Customers up 39%, EPS (non-GAAP) at $0.13
- Price-to-book: 58x ⚠️
- EV-to-sales: 100x ⚠️
- Heavy stock-based comp = shareholder dilution
- Analysts split: mostly neutral or bearish
- You’re investing in Peter Thiel’s vision, not value metrics
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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
