🌍 Global Macro:
-
US Debt Downgrade – Moody’s Finally Moves:
The last of the big three rating agencies finally downgrades US debt (AAA → AA1). It’s more about signalling than risk of default, but the warning is clear – US debt burden is unsustainable. Interest costs are now higher than defence spending. A squeeze is coming, with little political appetite for spending cuts or tax hikes. -
De-globalization & De-dollarization:
Real and ongoing. Not the end of the dollar, but enough to keep inflation sticky and interest rates elevated for longer.
🇿🇦 Local Economy:
-
SA Budget 3.0 @ 2PM Today:
Expectation is that GNU has signed off. No VAT hike expected, but with revised GDP growth lowered from 1.9% to 1–1.5%, spending cuts seem inevitable. Fuel levy hike on the cards? -
Inflation Print @ 10AM:
Market expecting April CPI to come in just below 3%. Lower inflation adds pressure on SARB to cut, with a 0.5% cut now the bare minimum.
🌐 Political Watch:
-
Ramaphosa vs Trump @ 7:45PM Oval Office Showdown:
Televised meeting expected to be fiery. Trump likely to push disinformation, Ramaphosa strong behind scenes—but this one’s in front of cameras. Could be messy.
💸 Markets in Motion:
-
ZAR Strengthening:
Rand smashes through key resistance at R18.30/USD, now below R17.90. Dollar index weakness drives move. EUR/ZAR also easing—back below R21. -
Gold Holding Strong:
Trading around $3,300/oz. Still consolidating but staying resilient. A dip to $2,900 would be a gift.
📈 Equity Movers:
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Sasol (SOL) – Capital Markets Day:
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Stock up 8%+ on positive commentary.
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Dividend only when debt < R3bn.
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Pushing renewables, fixing Secunda production.
-
Forward PE: 2.5x. Immensely cheap.
-
Resistance at R76–77 broken, eyes on R100.
-
-
Renegen* (REN) – Buyout Buzz:
-
ASP Isotopes offers equity buyout (0.9 ASP shares per REN).
-
Closed +38%, but still below implied value.
-
Deal would list ASP on JSE.
-
Feels like capitulation—Steph Marani stays on as divisional CEO.
-
-
WeBuyCars (WBC) – Solid Listing Results:
-
PE ~20x (17x forward).
-
Targeting 28k car sales/month (currently 16k).
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Simple model, execution risk real, but strong growth runway.
-
-
Famous Brands (FBR) – Decent in Tough Conditions:
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PE under 11, yield over 5%.
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Flat 3-year share price, consumer headwinds remain.
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SPUR may offer better balance sheet and upside.
-
📢 Final Thoughts:
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US downgrade was inevitable, but the problem isn’t ratings—it’s policy.
-
SA consumers are better off than a year ago, but still under pressure.
-
Equity markets throwing up value (Sasol, WBC), but risks remain.
💬 Simon Says:
“The US isn’t defaulting, but the path is unsustainable. Locally, Budget 3.0 and inflation could shape the MPC next week. Meanwhile, the Rand and gold are doing things. And equities? Well, Sasol might finally be waking up.”
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JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
