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Episode Summary
Tariffs haven’t gone away — Trump is using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to launch investigations into 60+ countries including South Africa, with no ceiling on tariff rates. Meanwhile, tentative ceasefire talks offer a glimmer of hope in the Iran war, gold took a beating on Monday, and Simon digs into two stock ideas: Rocket Lab for space exposure and Franco Nevada as a low-risk way to play gold.
What We Cover 🗂️
🏛️ Section 301 tariffs — what SA’s trade investigation means and why there’s no ceiling
🛡️ Investment scams event — what even experienced investors can learn
✍️ AI in the Wild — new column on data centres in space
⚔️ Iran war update — Trump’s five-day pause and the fog of diplomacy
🛢️ Goldman Sachs revises Brent forecast to $85 — and what happens if war drags on
🥇 Gold’s Monday selloff — FOMO unwind, Turkey selling reserves, leveraged exits
🇿🇦 JSE flat, Rand at R17.02, MPC rate decision Thursday
🚀 Rocket Lab (RKLB) — investing in space without SpaceX baggage
⛏️ Franco Nevada (FNV) — gold streaming as a low-risk mining play
Key Takeaways 💡
- Trump is using Section 301 to bypass the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling — no rate ceiling, no Congress vote, no court precedent striking it down. South Africa is in the firing line alongside 60 other countries.
- Goldman Sachs’s revised $85 Brent average assumes a best-case six-week disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. If war continues to September, oil could hit $140–160 and a Fed rate *increase* is being priced at nearly 50% odds.
- Gold’s sharp Monday selloff was driven by leveraged positions unwinding, Turkey reportedly tapping reserves, and profit-taking after a doubling in the past year. The long-term case remains intact.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) offers pure-play space exposure without the Musk conglomerate risk of SpaceX — 40% revenue growth expected, profitability targeted for 2027, analyst consensus skews buy.
- Franco Nevada (FNV) gives gold exposure without mining cost risk — a streaming model that avoids the energy cost squeeze facing traditional miners.
Stocks & Markets Mentioned 📋
- RKLB — Rocket Lab Corporation — Small reusable rockets, listed on NASDAQ, trading ~$68, analyst target $90
- FNV — Franco Nevada — Gold streaming company, listed NYSE/Toronto, trading ~$226, analyst target $290
- PL — Planet Labs — Mentioned as another listed space company worth investigating
- BHP* — BHP Group — Referenced for silver streaming deal structure
- Gold futures — Dropped to ~$4,000–4,200 on Monday before rallying
- Brent crude — Trading $101.74, Goldman revised average forecast to $85
- USD/ZAR — Rand at R17.02, was R16.78 earlier in the day
- JSE — Flat on the day with a bounce in gold counters
Listen & Subscribe 🎧
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Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s WorldWide Markets podcast (previously JSE Direct). JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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