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Episode Summary
Tariffs haven’t gone away β Trump is using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to launch investigations into 60+ countries including South Africa, with no ceiling on tariff rates. Meanwhile, tentative ceasefire talks offer a glimmer of hope in the Iran war, gold took a beating on Monday, and Simon digs into two stock ideas: Rocket Lab for space exposure and Franco Nevada as a low-risk way to play gold.
What We Cover ποΈ
ποΈ Section 301 tariffs β what SA’s trade investigation means and why there’s no ceiling
π‘οΈ Investment scams event β what even experienced investors can learn
βοΈ AI in the Wild β new column on data centres in space
βοΈ Iran war update β Trump’s five-day pause and the fog of diplomacy
π’οΈ Goldman Sachs revises Brent forecast to $85 β and what happens if war drags on
π₯ Gold’s Monday selloff β FOMO unwind, Turkey selling reserves, leveraged exits
πΏπ¦ JSE flat, Rand at R17.02, MPC rate decision Thursday
π Rocket Lab (RKLB) β investing in space without SpaceX baggage
βοΈ Franco Nevada (FNV) β gold streaming as a low-risk mining play
Key Takeaways π‘
- Trump is using Section 301 to bypass the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling β no rate ceiling, no Congress vote, no court precedent striking it down. South Africa is in the firing line alongside 60 other countries.
- Goldman Sachs’s revised $85 Brent average assumes a best-case six-week disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. If war continues to September, oil could hit $140β160 and a Fed rate *increase* is being priced at nearly 50% odds.
- Gold’s sharp Monday selloff was driven by leveraged positions unwinding, Turkey reportedly tapping reserves, and profit-taking after a doubling in the past year. The long-term case remains intact.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) offers pure-play space exposure without the Musk conglomerate risk of SpaceX β 40% revenue growth expected, profitability targeted for 2027, analyst consensus skews buy.
- Franco Nevada (FNV) gives gold exposure without mining cost risk β a streaming model that avoids the energy cost squeeze facing traditional miners.
Stocks & Markets Mentioned π
- RKLB β Rocket Lab Corporation β Small reusable rockets, listed on NASDAQ, trading ~$68, analyst target $90
- FNV β Franco Nevada β Gold streaming company, listed NYSE/Toronto, trading ~$226, analyst target $290
- PL β Planet Labs β Mentioned as another listed space company worth investigating
- BHP* β BHP Group β Referenced for silver streaming deal structure
- Gold futures β Dropped to ~$4,000β4,200 on Monday before rallying
- Brent crude β Trading $101.74, Goldman revised average forecast to $85
- USD/ZAR β Rand at R17.02, was R16.78 earlier in the day
- JSE β Flat on the day with a bounce in gold counters
Listen & Subscribe π§
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Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brownβs WorldWide Markets podcast (previously JSE Direct). JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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