Is the Gold Collapse Over?

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 664

📅 Recorded: Tuesday midday | 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown

This week on Worldwide Markets, we unpack a wild ride across commodities, central banks, tech titans, and global trade — with gold stealing the spotlight once again.

🟡 Has Gold Bottomed?

Gold went vertical — and then snapped back hard.

📈 Ran from around $4,300 → $5,600, before a brutal sell-off
📉 Dropped to $4,600, now stabilising near $4,900
🕯️ That giant red “kangaroo tail” candle looks ugly — but…

The bigger picture hasn’t changed:

💵 Debasement trade still intact
🌍 Central banks bought ~800 tonnes last year
🏦 ETF investors were big buyers again after selling in 2024

➡️ Verdict: Likely consolidation, not collapse. Sideways is the base case.

Gold |Weekly | 03 February 2026

🧱 Commodities Ran Too Hot

It wasn’t just gold:

🔩 Copper, silver, platinum, palladium all surged
🛢️ Brent crude nearly hit $70
🪨 Aluminium hit US record prices, creating transatlantic arbitrage

Nothing goes straight up forever — profit-taking was inevitable.

🪙 What About Silver?

Simon stays honest here:

❓ Industrial demand and price dislocations matter
⚠️ But silver remains complex and opaque

💡 Portfolio stance:

✅ Holding gold miners
✅ Holding gold ETFs (local & offshore)
❌ No silver exposure — and comfortable with that

🏦 Fed Drama: Enter Kevin Walsh

Trump’s Fed chair nominee spooked markets — but context matters:

🔄 Walsh is not a hawk, more a rate flip-flopper
🗳️ Previously opposed rate cuts… until Trump won
📉 Trump wants lower rates — Walsh says he’ll deliver

The challenge?

🧠 Convincing the rest of the FOMC
🪑 Jerome Powell still has influence for now

➡️ Expect noise, not an instant policy pivot.

🚀 SpaceX + xAI = Trillion-Dollar IPO?

Big Elon energy this week:

🛰️ SpaceX acquires xAI
🧠 Grok + data + power + space = big ambitions
📊 IPO rumoured for mid-2026
💰 Valuation likely north of $1 trillion

Simon likes SpaceX… less excited by the social-media side.

🚗 SA Vehicle Sales: Still Strong

January numbers surprised again:

📊 Sales near levels last seen in 2019 / early 2022
🏆 Toyota leads, but Chinese brands keep climbing
🇨🇳 Chery, GWM, JAC & friends reshaping the market

Consumers are still buying — despite high rates.

🤝 US–India Trade “Peace”… Sort Of

A deal was announced, but details are fuzzy:

📉 Tariffs reduced (somewhat)
🛢️ India supposedly to stop buying Russian oil (👀)
💸 India to buy $500bn of US goods (timeline unclear)

History lesson:

🌮 Trump tariff threats turn real only ~20% of the time
⚖️ Supreme Court still deciding if Trump even has the authority

➡️ Lots of headlines, fewer guarantees.

🎓 Upcoming Event: Power Hour

📅 19 February
📍 Rosebank (in-person) + webcast
💡 Topic: Tax-Free Investing & ETFs

👉 Book at justonelap.com/events

👋 Closing Thoughts

Markets are noisy, emotional, and fast — but the big-picture trends still matter more than the candles.

Until next week:
🤍 Look after yourself
🤍 And if you can, look after someone else too

Cheers! 🍻

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

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WorldWide Markets Podcast

Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s WorldWide Markets podcast (previously JSE Direct). JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.

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