Worldwide Markets โ Episode 657 (19 November 2025) ๐๏ธ๐
๐ฅ This Week on Worldwide Markets
Good things are happening in South Africa ๐ฟ๐ฆ, bubble-watching on global markets ๐, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One ๐, strong local results (Astral ๐, WeBuyCars ๐, Ninety One ๐ผ), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings ๐คโจ.
๐ Bubble Talk: When Does It Pop?
Guest Insight: Citigroupโs Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast)
Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average.
His exit rule:
โก๏ธ Identify the drivers โ the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta).
โก๏ธ The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA ๐.
Current Status:
- Meta: 12% below the 200-day โ
- Microsoft: +5.4% above
- Amazon: +6.5% above
- Others still safely above.
๐ So weโre halfway to bubble-popping territory.
๐ But: bubbles make money on the way up โ timing the exit is the key.
Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) ๐ฐ.
๐ Ninety One Lists Two Actively Managed Income ETFs
Two new AMETFs hit the JSE:
๐ฟ๐ฆ 91DINC (Local Income ETF)
- Quarterly dividends
- TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT)
- Tax-free account eligible
- ~20-year unit trust track record
๐ 91GINC (Global Income ETF)
- Accumulating (rolls up dividends)
- ~9% USD yield target
- Pays in ZAR on the JSE
- ~4.5% current USD yield
Full explainer webcast here ๐ฅ.
๐ฟ๐ฆ Good Things Happening in South Africa
Yes, things are still tough โ but several green shoots ๐ฑ:
1๏ธโฃ Greylist Exit
SA officially removed โ major reputational win โ๏ธ.
2๏ธโฃ Medium-term Budget Positives
- Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%).
- Primary budget surplus โ only ~6 countries globally manage this.
- Bond yields down โ2%, reducing future borrowing costs.
- Precious metals boom boosting revenue ๐ชโฌ๏ธ.
3๏ธโฃ New Inflation Target
- Formalised 3% target, with a 2โ4% band ๐ฏ.
- Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus ๐.
4๏ธโฃ MPC Outlook
- Inflation at 3.4% โ within band
- Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday โ๏ธ๐ธ.
5๏ธโฃ Credit Rating Upgrade
S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk โ 2-notches Junk.
- First upgrade in 16 years โญ
- Positive outlook โ another upgrade possible.
Moodyโs review coming in December.
6๏ธโฃ Load Shedding Gone (for now)
- Effectively no load shedding for months โก๐.
- Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next ๐ข.
7๏ธโฃ GNU Functioning Smoothly
- Budget passed without drama
- Coalition politics fading into the background โ exactly where they should be.
โ ๏ธ But:
- Chronic unemployment (31%+) ๐
- Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues
โ Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably.
๐ค Year-End Power Hour โ Book Now!
Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026
- Limited in-person seats
- Webcast available
- Simon reviews last yearโs predictions (and mocks himself ๐คฃ)
- Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc.
๐ Book here
๐ Company Results Round-Up
๐ Astral Foods
A horror first halfโฆ turned around:
What improved:
- Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30%
- Power issues stabilised
- Independent water supply
- Yellow maize prices lower ๐ฝโฌ๏ธ
- Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels
Outlook:
CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low.
๐ WeBuyCars
Trading update spooked the market โ PE dropped from mid-20s โ high teens.
Pressures:
- Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively ๐จ๐ณ
- Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens)
Their response:
- Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands
- Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon
- Record 16,000 monthly sales
- Scale still growing
Valuation:
Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s ๐.
๐ผ Ninety One (Asset Manager)
- Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM
- Market sold it off (priced for perfection?)
- PE ~11, DY ~6% โ cheap metrics
- Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds, 1 strong sell
- Price target avg โ R47.34 (around current price)
๐๏ธ Coronation
- Last yearโs SARS case win inflated the base
โ No repeat special dividends
โ Lower YoY numbers expected.
๐ฑ Rand & Commodities
๐ฟ๐ฆ Rand
- Broke below 17/USD last week (first time since early 2023)
- Now back around 17.20
- Trend still strengthening โ more in the Year-End Power Hour.
๐ช Gold
- Holding firm, not running
- Key levels:
- Support: ~R39,20
- Risk: Lower highs + lower lows if it breaks
- Currently steady around R4,050.
๐ Markets & Crypto
- S&P drawdown: ~3.5โ4%
- Nasdaq: ~5โ5.5%
โ Much panic for not much movement ๐คทโโ๏ธ.
โฟ Bitcoin
- Looking rough under R90,000
โ๏ธ Nvidia Earnings โ Wednesday
A major market catalyst.
Bad numbers could turn sentiment quickly.
๐ญ Coming Up Next Week
Simon looks at JSE top performers over the last 10 years ๐
(Spoiler: several gold minersโฆ but almost all gains from the last year.)
Then itโs December wrap-ups โ and back in January.
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Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brownโs famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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JSE โ The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
