🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 662
📅 21 January | Recorded Tuesday afternoon
Host: Simon Brown
Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing 🌍💳
🌪️ Wild Markets This Week
A full-throttle return after the festive break, with markets grappling with politics, power, commodities and currencies — and a reminder that who runs the Fed still really matters.
🏛️ Why Jerome Powell Matters
Jerome Powell is under political pressure — and that pressure is very deliberate.
- 🇺🇸 Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends in May, but his FOMC seat runs until 2028
- Donald Trump wants Powell out completely, not just stepping down as chair
- Why? Powell still carries huge gravitas around the FOMC table
- Trump wants control of interest rates — history (hello Turkey 📉) shows why that’s risky
- The legal action against Powell creates a chilling effect on public service
- 🔮 Prediction markets now see a higher probability Powell stays until 2028
👉 Bottom line: this isn’t about renovations or budgets — it’s about who controls monetary policy
📊 How the FOMC Really Works
- 🗳️ 12 voting members
- 5 regional Fed presidents (NY always, others rotate)
- 7 presidential appointees (14-year staggered terms)
- Trump’s strategy is clear: reshape the 7 appointees
- Stephen Miran’s term ends soon → a key opening for Trump
- Powell staying on = continued institutional resistance
🚧 Trump Tariff Bluster: Scary, Then… Not So Much?
Tariffs have been Trump’s weapon of choice — but markets are adapting.
- 📆 One year into Trump’s term, three to go
- Tariffs shocked markets on “Liberation Day” (2 April) and early Canada/Mexico threats
- Yet:
- 🇨🇳 China posted a $1.2 trillion trade surplus
- US tariff revenue rose from ~$80bn to ~$240bn
- Costs are being shared: exporters, importers & consumers
- The feared Smoot-Hawley repeat hasn’t materialised
⚠️ New concerns:
- 🇪🇺 Tariff threats on EU countries
- 🇩🇰 Greenland rhetoric spooking markets
- 📉 US futures pointing sharply lower (as of recording)
➡️ Markets are learning to look past the noise
🏔️ Davos: Does It Even Matter Anymore?
Once market-moving, now more theatre than substance.
- Big threats, big statements
- Very little follow-through
- Markets increasingly treating it as background chatter
🥇 Gold: The Real Winner
Gold continues to shine — and central banks are the key.
- 📈 Gold rebounded from sub-4000 to ~4730
- Central banks have effectively put a floor under gold
- Dedollarisation is real
- 🎯 5000 gold no longer sounds crazy — possibly first half of the year
⛏️ Gold Miners
- Profits set to double in 2025 vs 2024
- AngloGold Ashanti*:
- ~R500 in March last year
- ~R1000 by September
- ~R1600 now 📈
- Massive dividends likely, even if prices don’t triple again
🇿🇦 Rand Strength: Not Just Dollar Weakness
The rand is having a moment.
- 💱 Broke through 17, now around 16.40
- Drivers:
- 🇺🇸 Weaker dollar (DXY down from 108 to sub-100)
- 🌍 Foreigners buying SA bonds
- 🏭 Precious-metal exports converting USD back to ZAR
- Equity flows still net sellers — but nibbling is visible
🔩 PGMs on Fire
Platinum group metals had an epic festive season.
- ⚪ Platinum
- Broke key resistance levels
- Trading ~2300
- Supply deficit emerging
- 🔵 Palladium
- Back above 1800
- Demand steady as stockpiles clear
- 🎯 Sibanye-Stillwater* remains a compelling play
🛢️ Oil: Venezuela Isn’t the Silver Bullet
Oil price action has been volatile, but reality matters.
- Brent dipped below $60, then spiked above $66
- Venezuela:
- Only ~1% of global supply
- ~4% of heavy sour crude (more important)
- Infrastructure is broken
- Exxon calls it “uninvestable”
- Billions needed before meaningful supply returns
- Great piece by Casey Sprake.
👉 Not all barrels are equal — economics matter
🏆 Cristal Challenge Is Back
A JSE classic returns.
- Hosted by Sasfin
- Pick 5 JSE-listed shares (no ETFs)
- 🗓️ Entries close 31 January
- Simon will reveal his picks next week
📬 Get in Touch
Got thoughts, feedback or ideas?
- 🐦 Twitter/X: @SimonPB
- 🌐 Website: simonbrown.co.za
- 📧 Email: simon@justonelap.com
🙏 Thanks for Listening
Normal service is back.
As always — look after yourself, and if you can, look after someone else too ❤️
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Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s WorldWide Markets podcast (previously JSE Direct). JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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