Market Overview
Crypto Surge, Gold Decline: Bitcoin rallies as investors shift from gold to crypto. Gold hit a recent high of $2,800 but is now pulling back, possibly towards $2,300-$2,400. Central banks continue to buy gold as a hedge against U.S. dollar dominance and geopolitical risks.
Gold | Weekly | 13 November 2024
Rand Weakness: The ZAR weakened above 18 to the dollar, driven by strong U.S. dollar demand amidst market volatility. South African Rand overshoots due to its high liquidity, making it vulnerable to sharp moves.
Trump’s Impact on Crypto
Market speculation suggests Trump may be crypto-friendly, unlike the current SEC chair Gary Gensler, known for his strict regulatory stance. Potential shifts in the regulatory landscape could benefit cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin.
Simon holds Bitcoin and advises caution: ensure crypto is stored in a hardware wallet for safety.
Bitcoin | Weekly | 13 November 2024
Local Telco Sector: Vodacom & MTN
Both companies struggle with weakened African currencies like the Ethiopian Birr and Egyptian Pound. Profits are impacted when converted back to ZAR.
Despite attractive dividend yields (MTN ~4%, Vodacom ~5.6%), Simon remains bearish, highlighting high capex demands and sector challenges.
Raubex: Construction Sector Bright Spot
Strong results from Raubex, showing resilience in a struggling sector. Diversification into renewable energy and mining operations boosts performance.
Simon notes it as one of the few quality construction plays left, alongside Afrimat.
Consumer Market Struggles
Updates from AVI and BidCorp indicate persistent weak consumer demand, despite optimism from a possible government of national unity. Inflation has eased, but consumer spending remains subdued as households repair balance sheets.
Retail updates show mixed results: Truworths reported disappointing numbers, while The Foschini Group* performed better.
Tencent Results
Tencent posted strong results, though it did not significantly boost Naspers or Prosus stock prices. The market reaction was muted despite the solid performance.
Final Thoughts
The market remains volatile, with significant moves in crypto, gold, and the Rand. Simon advises a cautious approach, with a focus on quality stocks and long-term plays.
Remember: be kind and look out for others. Kindness is rule number one.
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00:00 Market Overview: Crypto vs Gold
02:50 The Trump Effect on Gold and Crypto
06:01 The Future of the Rand and Emerging Markets
08:55 Sector Analysis: Vodacom, MTN, and Raubex
16:02 Consumer Trends and Company Updates
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Thursdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
