Face-Ripping Rally on the JSE:
- Surge attributed to the formation of a coalition government involving ANC, DA, and IFP.
- Top 40 index rose 3.5%, a significant increase not seen since February 2018.
- The rally, likened to the start of a marathon, suggests potential long-term growth, despite possible volatility.
RAND and Resource Stocks:
- RAND trading under 18, affecting resources positively.
- Potential for RAND to strengthen further, possibly reaching 17.
Rand | Weekly | 19 June 2024
Coalition Government and Market Impacts:
- The coalition’s stability is uncertain but critical for long-term market confidence.
- JP Morgan upgraded South Africa from underweight to overweight, signaling positive outlooks.
SA Inc Stocks and ETFs:
- Retailers like Shoprite*, Mr. Price*, Foschini Group*, and Truworths hitting 52-week highs.
- ETFs for local investors, focusing on SA Inc..
- Recommendations include avoiding heavy Rand Hedge dual-listed miners in a strong RAND environment.
RSA Retail Savings Bonds:
- Interest rates for RSA Retail Savings Bonds to drop in July.
- Current rates: 11.5% for a 5-year bond, expected to decrease to 10.75%.
- Opportunity to reset bonds before the rate change on the 20th of the month.
RSA 5 year yield | weekly 19 June 2024
Inflation and Interest Rates:
- Local CPI stable at 5.2%, within the target band but aiming for 4.5%.
- US FOMC holds rates steady, hinting at a possible future rate cut.
- Prospects for lower local interest rates and their impact on retail stocks and disposable income.
CPI
Market Opportunities:
- Interest in retailers and brokers like Purple Group* and PSG Konsult, considering the potential increase in disposable income and trading volumes.
- Positive long-term outlook, but caution against immediate full investment.
Simon Brown
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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Thursdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
