Worldwide markets this week: global bond yields spiking — it is all bad news. Pick n Pay sold some Boxer shares. We will listen to last week’s show on the Eastern Cape citrus and the floods. We have got lots of results. The Cerebras IPO. And stocks on the move.

I am Simon Brown. This is WorldWideMarkets, episode 678 for 20 May. And I am recording this on Tuesday morning.

*WorldWideMarkets powered by Standard Bank Global Markets Retail and Shyft, the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand. Enjoy the cheapest forex rates anytime, anywhere. Shyft, powered by Standard Bank.*

Thanks to Shyft, thanks to Standard Bank. If you are a Webtrader client, you are about to be moving over to Shyft. They have now put Webtrader inside Shyft. I have got to say, I like Webtrader. As a utility to buy and sell, these platforms are just utilities now. What do you want from that utility? You want something that is light on memory, that is quick, that is easy to navigate. Webtrader fits that. There are some out there — naming no names — that simply do not.

## Global bond yields

Let us start with what is, to my mind, the big story. This is bond yields. Global bond yields are on the rise and we are seeing it left, right and centre. This is government debt.

We are quite high up on that list at 8.85%. The US is at 4.6%. Those are giant numbers. Remember, five or so years ago we had negative yields. Negative yields. Now we have got not just positive yields, but yields at high levels.

We have got the Japanese 30-year at record highs. We have got the UK 30-year at highs not seen since 1998. The US 10-year is as high as it was in the global financial crisis and the pandemic. So call it crisis levels.

There are two things going on. One: this is telling us investors do not want to own this debt. They are saying they are not so sure. Why do they not want to own it? Inflation. If you think there is inflation coming down the road, do you want to lock in a rate of, say, 4% on your US 10-year when you are worried that over those 10 years inflation might average 5%? Five is a crazy number, but that is the logic.

Some of it is geopolitical — talk around China being a big seller. But the bigger issue is that these governments have got mountains of debt. Mountains of debt. And this debt is now becoming more expensive. The US is spending more on interest than on military. And to be clear, the US spends a veritable truckload on military. So this is an absolute big deal. It is the market being spooked, and it is going to hurt these economies. It is going to hurt them massively.

Higher yields means we are seeing a sell-off in those bonds, which means people are selling, which means they are taking the money. Where are they going with it?

Some of it is going into Mag 7. Some of it is going into SaaS stocks — I was having a look at the IGV ETF and it has done fairly well. Some of it is going into the traditional places: tech, the exciting stuff. But it is not going to the level I thought it would. It is happening, but I thought it would happen a whole lot more. I am not seeing where this money is flooding to.

These high yields are bad news. They are only bad news. Put it this way: if we were having emerging market economies with their yields at record highs, or 30-year highs, or 20-year highs, the talk would all be of doom and gloom. There is no reason it should not equally be doom and gloom right now.

I mentioned SaaS. A while back — I think it was mid-April — I did a review of SaaS stocks. I wrote a research report on it and the ETF was IGV. Since I wrote about it, it was trading around the low 80s — about 82, 83 — and is now trading at 92. We are certainly seeing a move there. We are seeing a big move in tech generally. Nvidia is off the highs but was trading at all-time highs late last week. We have got CrowdStrike, we have got ASML. Tech has been bought again.

So where is the money going? Some of it is definitely going into tech, but the bond market is way bigger than equity markets. So I do not know. I just do not know. It is a quandary. We will find out in time. One day we will have that answer.

## Pick n Pay sells Boxer

In the meantime, an announcement after close on Monday: Pick n Pay is going to be exiting some of their Boxer stake — not entirely. They are going to be selling about R4.7 billion worth. That is about 11%. It takes their holding down to 53-and-some-change, down from 65. Pick n Pay is off 5%. Boxer is off 5%. In fact, both down exactly 5.29% as I talk.

I spoke last week — the short version is that when you buy Pick n Pay right now, you are basically getting a minus R10 billion valuation, because they hold a stake in Boxer worth about R25 billion and they were trading at R26, while Boxer was trading at R16.

I also chatted with Lisa Fynn from Mergence Investment Managers on my Moneyweb show on Tuesday morning. She reminded me about R17 billion of rights issue capital raises over the last little while, against a current market cap of R16 billion.

So Pick n Pay is selling down some Boxer shares — 11-odd percent. They are still going to be the biggest shareholder. It gives them R4.7 billion of cash. They have promised they will not be doing another sell-down of Boxer shares for 365 days. That was in the Ts and Cs.

The question: are they opportunistically saying, “Boxer is at these crazy high levels, let us take some money and run”? That might well be the case. Or are things worse at Pick n Pay than perhaps everyone thought?

Sean Summers initially had his three-year contract extended. That is fine — but three years seems tight. And when you actually get to kick the tyres and look under the hood, you see things are tougher. I cannot help wondering if things are not perhaps worse. They are busy trying to renegotiate staff labour conditions. They cannot afford to strike. They just know that will be horrible. They must avoid that. Anyway, they have another R4.7 billion. They were cash positive already. Now they are very cash positive.

## Eastern Cape floods and the citrus crop

We have had massive floods down in the Eastern Cape, and a lot of that is citrus-growing area. Reports suggest we could see 10 to 12% of the Eastern Cape citrus crop affected. That is lots of bad news for lots of places. We have got Mondi and Sappi who provide the packaging. We have got KAP. We have got a lot of companies that are going to get potentially hurt from that.

## Cerebras IPO

Cerebras has just IPO’d, and man, this was a crazy IPO. Although crazy is just how it rolls these days.

Cerebras listed Thursday. Thursday, Friday, Monday — so we only have a couple of days of price action. It traded up to a high of 390 and is already close to 290. It is already down about 25%. Although that 390 was about 2x the listing price, so let us not get too far ahead of ourselves.

What do they do? They make chips. They make a funky chip. In their defence, they make a funky chip. Chips are normally all about how small you can be — but in Cerebras’s case it is the opposite: how big can we be? They make a large chip. It is not a competitor to Nvidia’s H200s or Blackwells or anything like that.

But 86% of their revenue is coming from one customer. Their price-to-sales is over 100. That one customer happens to be the sovereign wealth fund of the UAE. Price-to-sales around 150. PE over 200. EV-to-sales around 127. This is an expensive stock. This is crazy.

This is what we are going to see when we start getting the IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and the like. We are going to see crazy valuations. We are going to see massive pop on the day. And then we are going to see a meltdown. If you can get ahead of an IPO, you sell into that massive pop, all is good. If you cannot, your job is to either short at the top or wait for the collapse. And if you want to buy it, buy at the bottom.

## OpenAI vs Musk, and Anthropic overtakes OpenAI

Interestingly, OpenAI have won their case against Elon Musk. Essentially, Elon Musk was told he took too long to act. Elon is traipsing all over the media saying no one is ever going to give to charity anymore. Dude — read the transcripts from the court case that you were part of, that you were basically interrogated on. Whatever.

But fun fact: Anthropic is now the bigger of the two. Anthropic is now bigger than OpenAI, at a $930 billion market cap. A year ago, it was probably OpenAI at about $800 billion and Anthropic maybe at $200 billion. I do not think we have ever seen such a switch. This is Pepsi overtaking Coke. It is crazy. It is absolutely insane.

And to be clear, I am an Anthropic fan. So I have nailed my colours to the mast there.

## JustOneLap research project

Why am I an Anthropic fan? Lots of reasons. But I am barrelling on with the research I have been doing. If you are a listener here or a reader of the newsletter, you would have seen some of it.

What we are trying to do is build institutional-grade research, coming out of my Claude Cowork Opus 4.7, on non-Top 50 JSE stocks. So far we have got 10 — there is one busy running in the background right now. We have initiated 10: nine buys and a hold. Honestly, that bothers me. I need some holds, I need some sells, I want some sells.

But 10 stocks is not a lot. And we are getting really good quality out of it.

We have done Famous Brands, Calgro M3, Karoo (Cattle and Land), Bytes — Bytes and Karoo we did in their native currency, so dollars and sterling — Raubex, Balwin, CMH, Advtech and Stadio. Stadio is the hold, with an expected return of -3.9% over the next year.

We do two pages. We do the big doc — sort of 20 to 30-odd-page institutional-grade — and a two-pager. I am going to put it on a website somewhere in the next, I do not know, days or weeks. I am going to put all that out there. Ultimately, it needs to go behind a paywall, or I need to stop playing with it, because it is costing me in compute. But we are getting fairly good quality. As I said, I need some holds, I need some sells. We will get there in time. Perhaps. Maybe we do not. I do not know.

But here is the fun fact. We have a very stringent fact-checking process. Claude Opus 4.7 does the report. I then take a very detailed fact-checking request and all the documentation, and I go to a non-Claude, non-Anthropic AI — either GPT, or Gemini. I have not tried Copilot, and I should maybe look at some of the Chinese ones. We refact-check. If we get any errors, we correct it. If we get critical errors, we refact-check, we come back.

But here is the fun thing. I got hold of some initiating-coverage reports from some of the big institutions in South Africa who do these types of things, and I ran them through my fact-check process. None passed. Not one passed.

Anyway. I do not know what that means. It means their fact-checking is less robust, obviously. And no, I am not naming names. Do not be silly.

## Results

We have got results coming out galore.

**Calgro M3:** Not a bad set of numbers, not thrilling. The market kind of liked them. Bit of a dividend — that is always nice. Really it is the memorial parks business they are working on. They are spending a lot on top structure at this point. They are not going to get anything revenue-wise this year, maybe not even next year. It is a while before they start seeing some revenue there. They are exiting some non-core projects. I chatted with Ben Peel, my Hubber, and asked what is non-core. He said non-core really is projects that either are non-core, or projects they have kind of finished — they have been working on them for a decade or so and there is no more land left. I hold Calgro M3.

**WeBuyCars:** Not bad. Price deflation, largely because of the pressure coming from cheap Chinese vehicles. I thought the results were not bad.

**Astral Foods:** Quite good numbers. Obviously deeply cyclical, and at this point they are in the right part of the cycle. We have seen maize prices come down, we have seen consumer demand go up. Inflationary pressure is, oddly enough, good for chicken — it is a cheaper protein than beef or pork. So pressure on the consumer sees people moving more to chicken. And there are different ways to do chicken at different price points. The risk: a potential weather pattern — El Niño, a drought, coming towards the end of the year — would hurt maize prices, which would then flow through and hurt them.

## Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026

This is an absolutely fascinating read. We do not have the entire book — you have got to be a client of a rich person or something — but this is done by UBS, by Dimson, Marsh and Staunton. I have been quoting them in various ways for over 20 years.

Just go and search “Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026” and you will find the abbreviated version. This is the 24-page version, as opposed to the 400-page version, which sits behind a paywall. I will put the link in the show notes.

It is global markets since 1900 — 126 years — and how they have transformed; the outperformance of stocks. It is a fascinating read. They have country markets included. You are never going to guess who is top of the list in terms of returns. Best-performing market over the period? South Africa. Yes. Second best? Australia. Yes. The US is somewhere, but not at the top. Always worth a read — 20-odd pages, nice and simple.

## Stocks on the move

I have written a script to try to identify stocks having a move. I am only interested in weekly charts — daily charts are not of my interest. I want weekly charts.

**British American Tobacco (BTI):** The one that absolutely jumped out. This is a significant break. The question is: are we going to get a pullback and retest of about the 1,000p level? I would very much like a pullback and retest of 1,000.

Let me have a quick look at some metrics. It is a little — look, you are getting a 5.1% dividend yield. That is not bad. It is sterling underlying and then comes through to you obviously in rands. Mean PE 12.9, trading at a forward 13.7. So it is more expensive than usual. It is not a cheap stock by any stretch.

As I said, I would much like it closer to 1,000. If you have been thinking British American Tobacco, “I need to wait for an opportunity” — this might be it. Analyst price targets: two strong buys, six buys, two holds and a strong sell. The low is 800, average 1,102, high 1,225. The share is at 1,100. A pullback to 1,000 might get me interested for a trade. I am not doing this leveraged — I would just buy it. If you have been looking for an entry, this was a significant break higher.

**BHP Group (BHG):** As I think they now call themselves. Not a bad-looking break on last week’s data. Not as clear as the others, but certainly moving higher. Stalled a bit here.

The story on BHP is quite simple: copper and iron ore. The copper story we know — let me look at iron ore in a moment. Not a particularly cheap stock, not a bad dividend yield. Analyst price targets: average 650, stock at 702, high 820, low 470. 11 holds, one strong sell, two buys and two strong buys.

**Copper and iron ore:** Both looking strong. HG1 for copper. Copper is having a moment in the sun, trading just off all-time highs. Iron ore is having a bit of a day in the sun too. Iron ore has been between — let us be generous and say 90 and 105, currently trading at 110 — but holding on to that very, very well.

**Clicks (CLS):** Moving the other way. Breaking down. Last week’s close was pretty ugly. We are now back at October 2023 levels. Clicks is looking fairly bleak in that regard. I hold some Clicks. I like them.

Let me pull up snapshots. I do not think Clicks is expensive. Mean PE is 30 and the forward is 16. This is about as cheap as you are going to get it. Mean price-to-book is 12 and the forward is nine. Now, this was always a very expensive stock. Dividend yield 3.5%. Expected sales growth around 7%, EPS growth around 7 to 12% over the next couple of years.

It is breaking lower, but I have to say I quite like Clicks at these levels. Analyst price targets: one strong buy, five buys, two holds. High 396, average 358, low 318. Clicks is at 250. I get it — the consumer is under pressure. My wallet has been abused by petrol and diesel pumps. I get all of that.

But this is cheap. I think Clicks is looking very cheap at these levels. I was buying earlier in the year. I have been buying a little bit last week as well. It is going to be a tough little while — make no mistake about that — but that does not mean it is not trading at attractive levels at this point.

## Event: How to find the next Capitec

We have an event coming up: “How to find the next Capitec”. This is a Power Hour next week, on the 28th, which is a Thursday. It is at 5:30pm. You can attend the webcast or attend live in person at the Standard Bank head office up here in Rosebank, Johannesburg.

What we have basically got is: Capitec from R2 to R4,000. How do we find the next one? To be clear, I have bitten off a lot to chew here. There are some obvious things that are going to make it easier for us. But what is it about Capitec that we could have looked at 20-odd years ago and said, “ah, look at this” — and now, maybe not that it is a 2,000-bagger (forget 10-bagger, it is a 2,000-bagger) — but if we can get something that is a 100-bagger, we are absolutely smiling.

I think there definitely are some bits and pieces in Capitec that can help us identify the next one. The point I am at now is: I have found trends in Capitec that look real. Now I am looking for other companies that meet those. And then we sit back and wait 20 years, because that is how long it has taken with Capitec.

Anyway — justonelap.com/events for more information and to book.

## Sign-off

WorldWideMarkets — let us leave it there for now.

*Just a quick last sting from our sponsors: WorldWideMarkets powered by Standard Bank Global Markets Retail and Shyft, the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand. Enjoy the cheapest forex rates anytime, anywhere. Shyft, powered by Standard Bank.*

Thanks to Standard Bank. Thanks to Shyft.

Keep a very close eye on bond yields — US at 4.6% on the 10-year. That hurts. Keep a close eye on those. If they keep on rising, things get ugly. Get proper ugly.

Anyway — we will call it there for the week. My name is Simon. We will be back again next week. As always: look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else as well. Cheers all.

Worldwide markets this week: global bond yields spiking — it is all bad news. Pick n Pay sold some Boxer shares. We will listen to last week’s show on the Eastern Cape citrus and the floods. We have got lots of results. The Cerebras IPO. And stocks on the move.

I am Simon Brown. This is WorldWideMarkets, episode 678 for 20 May. And I am recording this on Tuesday morning.

*WorldWideMarkets powered by Standard Bank Global Markets Retail and Shyft, the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand. Enjoy the cheapest forex rates anytime, anywhere. Shyft, powered by Standard Bank.*

Thanks to Shyft, thanks to Standard Bank. If you are a Webtrader client, you are about to be moving over to Shift. They have now put Webtrader inside Shift. I have got to say, I like Webtrader. As a utility to buy and sell, these platforms are just utilities now. What do you want from that utility? You want something that is light on memory, that is quick, that is easy to navigate. Webtrader fits that. There are some out there — naming no names — that simply do not.

## Global bond yields

Let us start with what is, to my mind, the big story. This is bond yields. Global bond yields are on the rise and we are seeing it left, right and centre. This is government debt.

We are quite high up on that list at 8.85%. The US is at 4.6%. Those are giant numbers. Remember, five or so years ago we had negative yields. Negative yields. Now we have got not just positive yields, but yields at high levels.

We have got the Japanese 30-year at record highs. We have got the UK 30-year at highs not seen since 1998. The US 10-year is as high as it was in the global financial crisis and the pandemic. So call it crisis levels.

There are two things going on. One: this is telling us investors do not want to own this debt. They are saying they are not so sure. Why do they not want to own it? Inflation. If you think there is inflation coming down the road, do you want to lock in a rate of, say, 4% on your US 10-year when you are worried that over those 10 years inflation might average 5%? Five is a crazy number, but that is the logic.

Some of it is geopolitical — talk around China being a big seller. But the bigger issue is that these governments have got mountains of debt. Mountains of debt. And this debt is now becoming more expensive. The US is spending more on interest than on military. And to be clear, the US spends a veritable truckload on military. So this is an absolute big deal. It is the market being spooked, and it is going to hurt these economies. It is going to hurt them massively.

Higher yields means we are seeing a sell-off in those bonds, which means people are selling, which means they are taking the money. Where are they going with it?

Some of it is going into Mag 7. Some of it is going into SaaS stocks — I was having a look at the IGV ETF and it has done fairly well. Some of it is going into the traditional places: tech, the exciting stuff. But it is not going to the level I thought it would. It is happening, but I thought it would happen a whole lot more. I am not seeing where this money is flooding to.

These high yields are bad news. They are only bad news. Put it this way: if we were having emerging market economies with their yields at record highs, or 30-year highs, or 20-year highs, the talk would all be of doom and gloom. There is no reason it should not equally be doom and gloom right now.

I mentioned SaaS. A while back — I think it was mid-April — I did a review of SaaS stocks. I wrote a research report on it and the ETF was IGV. Since I wrote about it, it was trading around the low 80s — about 82, 83 — and is now trading at 92. We are certainly seeing a move there. We are seeing a big move in tech generally. Nvidia is off the highs but was trading at all-time highs late last week. We have got CrowdStrike, we have got ASML. Tech has been bought again.

So where is the money going? Some of it is definitely going into tech, but the bond market is way bigger than equity markets. So I do not know. I just do not know. It is a quandary. We will find out in time. One day we will have that answer.

## Pick n Pay sells Boxer

In the meantime, an announcement after close on Monday: Pick n Pay is going to be exiting some of their Boxer stake — not entirely. They are going to be selling about R4.7 billion worth. That is about 11%. It takes their holding down to 53-and-some-change, down from 65. Pick n Pay is off 5%. Boxer is off 5%. In fact, both down exactly 5.29% as I talk.

I spoke last week — the short version is that when you buy Pick n Pay right now, you are basically getting a minus R10 billion valuation, because they hold a stake in Boxer worth about R25 billion and they were trading at R26, while Boxer was trading at R16.

I also chatted with Lisa Fynn from Mergence Investment Managers on my Moneyweb show on Tuesday morning. She reminded me about R17 billion of rights issue capital raises over the last little while, against a current market cap of R16 billion.

So Pick n Pay is selling down some Boxer shares — 11-odd percent. They are still going to be the biggest shareholder. It gives them R4.7 billion of cash. They have promised they will not be doing another sell-down of Boxer shares for 365 days. That was in the Ts and Cs.

The question: are they opportunistically saying, “Boxer is at these crazy high levels, let us take some money and run”? That might well be the case. Or are things worse at Pick n Pay than perhaps everyone thought?

Sean Summers initially had his three-year contract extended. That is fine — but three years seems tight. And when you actually get to kick the tyres and look under the hood, you see things are tougher. I cannot help wondering if things are not perhaps worse. They are busy trying to renegotiate staff labour conditions. They cannot afford to strike. They just know that will be horrible. They must avoid that. Anyway, they have another R4.7 billion. They were cash positive already. Now they are very cash positive.

## Eastern Cape floods and the citrus crop

We have had massive floods down in the Eastern Cape, and a lot of that is citrus-growing area. Reports suggest we could see 10 to 12% of the Eastern Cape citrus crop affected. That is lots of bad news for lots of places. We have got Mondi and Sappi who provide the packaging. We have got KAP. We have got a lot of companies that are going to get potentially hurt from that.

## Cerebras IPO

Cerebras has just IPO’d, and man, this was a crazy IPO. Although crazy is just how it rolls these days.

Cerebras listed Thursday. Thursday, Friday, Monday — so we only have a couple of days of price action. It traded up to a high of 390 and is already close to 290. It is already down about 25%. Although that 390 was about 2x the listing price, so let us not get too far ahead of ourselves.

What do they do? They make chips. They make a funky chip. In their defence, they make a funky chip. Chips are normally all about how small you can be — but in Cerebras’s case it is the opposite: how big can we be? They make a large chip. It is not a competitor to Nvidia’s H200s or Blackwells or anything like that.

But 86% of their revenue is coming from one customer. Their price-to-sales is over 100. That one customer happens to be the sovereign wealth fund of the UAE. Price-to-sales around 150. PE over 200. EV-to-sales around 127. This is an expensive stock. This is crazy.

This is what we are going to see when we start getting the IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and the like. We are going to see crazy valuations. We are going to see massive pop on the day. And then we are going to see a meltdown. If you can get ahead of an IPO, you sell into that massive pop, all is good. If you cannot, your job is to either short at the top or wait for the collapse. And if you want to buy it, buy at the bottom.

## OpenAI vs Musk, and Anthropic overtakes OpenAI

Interestingly, OpenAI have won their case against Elon Musk. Essentially, Elon Musk was told he took too long to act. Elon is traipsing all over the media saying no one is ever going to give to charity anymore. Dude — read the transcripts from the court case that you were part of, that you were basically interrogated on. Whatever.

But fun fact: Anthropic is now the bigger of the two. Anthropic is now bigger than OpenAI, at a $930 billion market cap. A year ago, it was probably OpenAI at about $800 billion and Anthropic maybe at $200 billion. I do not think we have ever seen such a switch. This is Pepsi overtaking Coke. It is crazy. It is absolutely insane.

And to be clear, I am an Anthropic fan. So I have nailed my colours to the mast there.

## JustOneLap research project

Why am I an Anthropic fan? Lots of reasons. But I am barrelling on with the research I have been doing. If you are a listener here or a reader of the newsletter, you would have seen some of it.

What we are trying to do is build institutional-grade research, coming out of my Claude Cowork Opus 4.7, on non-Top 50 JSE stocks. So far we have got 10 — there is one busy running in the background right now. We have initiated 10: nine buys and a hold. Honestly, that bothers me. I need some holds, I need some sells, I want some sells.

But 10 stocks is not a lot. And we are getting really good quality out of it.

We have done Famous Brands, Calgro M3, Karoo (Cattle and Land), Bytes — Bytes and Karoo we did in their native currency, so dollars and sterling — Raubex, Balwin, CMH, Advtech and Stadio. Stadio is the hold, with an expected return of -3.9% over the next year.

We do two pages. We do the big doc — sort of 20 to 30-odd-page institutional-grade — and a two-pager. I am going to put it on a website somewhere in the next, I do not know, days or weeks. I am going to put all that out there. Ultimately, it needs to go behind a paywall, or I need to stop playing with it, because it is costing me in compute. But we are getting fairly good quality. As I said, I need some holds, I need some sells. We will get there in time. Perhaps. Maybe we do not. I do not know.

But here is the fun fact. We have a very stringent fact-checking process. Claude Opus 4.7 does the report. I then take a very detailed fact-checking request and all the documentation, and I go to a non-Claude, non-Anthropic AI — either GPT, or Gemini. I have not tried Copilot, and I should maybe look at some of the Chinese ones. We refact-check. If we get any errors, we correct it. If we get critical errors, we refact-check, we come back.

But here is the fun thing. I got hold of some initiating-coverage reports from some of the big institutions in South Africa who do these types of things, and I ran them through my fact-check process. None passed. Not one passed.

Anyway. I do not know what that means. It means their fact-checking is less robust, obviously. And no, I am not naming names. Do not be silly.

## Results

We have got results coming out galore.

**Calgro M3:** Not a bad set of numbers, not thrilling. The market kind of liked them. Bit of a dividend — that is always nice. Really it is the memorial parks business they are working on. They are spending a lot on top structure at this point. They are not going to get anything revenue-wise this year, maybe not even next year. It is a while before they start seeing some revenue there. They are exiting some non-core projects. I chatted with Ben Peel, my Hubber, and asked what is non-core. He said non-core really is projects that either are non-core, or projects they have kind of finished — they have been working on them for a decade or so and there is no more land left. I hold Calgro M3.

**WeBuyCars:** Not bad. Price deflation, largely because of the pressure coming from cheap Chinese vehicles. I thought the results were not bad.

**Astral Foods:** Quite good numbers. Obviously deeply cyclical, and at this point they are in the right part of the cycle. We have seen maize prices come down, we have seen consumer demand go up. Inflationary pressure is, oddly enough, good for chicken — it is a cheaper protein than beef or pork. So pressure on the consumer sees people moving more to chicken. And there are different ways to do chicken at different price points. The risk: a potential weather pattern — El Niño, a drought, coming towards the end of the year — would hurt maize prices, which would then flow through and hurt them.

## Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026

This is an absolutely fascinating read. We do not have the entire book — you have got to be a client of a rich person or something — but this is done by UBS, by Dimson, Marsh and Staunton. I have been quoting them in various ways for over 20 years.

Just go and search “Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026” and you will find the abbreviated version. This is the 24-page version, as opposed to the 400-page version, which sits behind a paywall. I will put the link in the show notes.

It is global markets since 1900 — 126 years — and how they have transformed; the outperformance of stocks. It is a fascinating read. They have country markets included. You are never going to guess who is top of the list in terms of returns. Best-performing market over the period? South Africa. Yes. Second best? Australia. Yes. The US is somewhere, but not at the top. Always worth a read — 20-odd pages, nice and simple.

## Stocks on the move

I have written a script to try to identify stocks having a move. I am only interested in weekly charts — daily charts are not of my interest. I want weekly charts.

**British American Tobacco (BTI):** The one that absolutely jumped out. This is a significant break. The question is: are we going to get a pullback and retest of about the 1,000p level? I would very much like a pullback and retest of 1,000.

Let me have a quick look at some metrics. It is a little — look, you are getting a 5.1% dividend yield. That is not bad. It is sterling underlying and then comes through to you obviously in rands. Mean PE 12.9, trading at a forward 13.7. So it is more expensive than usual. It is not a cheap stock by any stretch.

As I said, I would much like it closer to 1,000. If you have been thinking British American Tobacco, “I need to wait for an opportunity” — this might be it. Analyst price targets: two strong buys, six buys, two holds and a strong sell. The low is 800, average 1,102, high 1,225. The share is at 1,100. A pullback to 1,000 might get me interested for a trade. I am not doing this leveraged — I would just buy it. If you have been looking for an entry, this was a significant break higher.

**BHP Group (BHG):** As I think they now call themselves. Not a bad-looking break on last week’s data. Not as clear as the others, but certainly moving higher. Stalled a bit here.

The story on BHP is quite simple: copper and iron ore. The copper story we know — let me look at iron ore in a moment. Not a particularly cheap stock, not a bad dividend yield. Analyst price targets: average 650, stock at 702, high 820, low 470. 11 holds, one strong sell, two buys and two strong buys.

**Copper and iron ore:** Both looking strong. HG1 for copper. Copper is having a moment in the sun, trading just off all-time highs. Iron ore is having a bit of a day in the sun too. Iron ore has been between — let us be generous and say 90 and 105, currently trading at 110 — but holding on to that very, very well.

**Clicks (CLS):** Moving the other way. Breaking down. Last week’s close was pretty ugly. We are now back at October 2023 levels. Clicks is looking fairly bleak in that regard. I hold some Clicks. I like them.

Let me pull up snapshots. I do not think Clicks is expensive. Mean PE is 30 and the forward is 16. This is about as cheap as you are going to get it. Mean price-to-book is 12 and the forward is nine. Now, this was always a very expensive stock. Dividend yield 3.5%. Expected sales growth around 7%, EPS growth around 7 to 12% over the next couple of years.

It is breaking lower, but I have to say I quite like Clicks at these levels. Analyst price targets: one strong buy, five buys, two holds. High 396, average 358, low 318. Clicks is at 250. I get it — the consumer is under pressure. My wallet has been abused by petrol and diesel pumps. I get all of that.

But this is cheap. I think Clicks is looking very cheap at these levels. I was buying earlier in the year. I have been buying a little bit last week as well. It is going to be a tough little while — make no mistake about that — but that does not mean it is not trading at attractive levels at this point.

## Event: How to find the next Capitec

We have an event coming up: “How to find the next Capitec”. This is a Power Hour next week, on the 28th, which is a Thursday. It is at 5:30pm. You can attend the webcast or attend live in person at the Standard Bank head office up here in Rosebank, Johannesburg.

What we have basically got is: Capitec from R2 to R4,000. How do we find the next one? To be clear, I have bitten off a lot to chew here. There are some obvious things that are going to make it easier for us. But what is it about Capitec that we could have looked at 20-odd years ago and said, “ah, look at this” — and now, maybe not that it is a 2,000-bagger (forget 10-bagger, it is a 2,000-bagger) — but if we can get something that is a 100-bagger, we are absolutely smiling.

I think there definitely are some bits and pieces in Capitec that can help us identify the next one. The point I am at now is: I have found trends in Capitec that look real. Now I am looking for other companies that meet those. And then we sit back and wait 20 years, because that is how long it has taken with Capitec.

Anyway — justonelap.com/events for more information and to book.

## Sign-off

WorldWideMarkets — let us leave it there for now.

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Thanks to Standard Bank. Thanks to Shyft.

Keep a very close eye on bond yields — US at 4.6% on the 10-year. That hurts. Keep a close eye on those. If they keep on rising, things get ugly. Get proper ugly.

Anyway — we will call it there for the week. My name is Simon. We will be back again next week. As always: look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else as well. Cheers all.