15 July 2026 · with Simon Brown

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Editor’s note: this is a lightly edited version of the spoken episode, cleaned for readability while keeping Simon’s voice. A few names came through unclearly in the recording and are flagged in brackets for confirmation before publishing.

Worldwide Markets this week: SpaceX underwater, Sappi, Purple getting into AI, US earnings season starts, De Beers closes its last local diamond mine, the US 10-year at 4.6 and change, Apple sues OpenAI, and stocks on the move.

This is WorldWideMarkets episode 686 for 15 July, and I am recording on Tuesday afternoon — 20 past one, to timestamp it. Thanks to Shyft for coming on board. As I have mentioned, we are moving the OST platform across to Shyft. You will get an email to that effect fairly soon; many of you have moved across already, with a bunch still to do.

SpaceX: a month in, and underwater

Let’s start with SpaceX. The listing was just over a month ago, so we are now a month into the market — and here is what we are starting to see. If you bought since that listing on 12 June, you are underwater. Maybe you were one of the lucky ones who bought at Monday’s lows, in which case you are a dollar or so in profit. Everyone else who bought and held is underwater. Unless, of course, you traded it — bought and sold hundreds of times. Good for you, well done. But buy-and-hold, you are underwater.

This is what I expected to see. I did not expect it to happen quite so quickly, frankly, but here we are. Are we starting to get price targets? We are. The high target is $800 — someone really loves it. The average is $242 and change, SpaceX is trading around $139, and the low is $62. That is 20 buys, four holds, one sell, and six strong buys — and then someone sitting up at $800.

A couple of things are happening here. One, quite simply, is that the stock came to market at a very, very crazy valuation. We spoke about that a lot. But there is also a lot of stock that comes to market in a staggered way, and that is perhaps the important point. It is difficult to get an exact read on what unlocks, where and how — but I have had my Claude working on it and giving me some insight.

Claude reckons that from about now, mid-July, roughly 20% of shares come to market. After that we get a drip of another 7% or so every 20 to 30 days, with the full amount unlocked by December. The 180-day lock-up is gone, so the sales can come. Someone who bought SpaceX back in, say, 2010 at the equivalent of five cents a share — do they want to cash out? Of course they do. So would I, so would you. We are not begrudging them anything. What we are saying is: be careful out there. This is not a cheap stock, and there is a lot of insider selling still to come.

I have been talking a lot about how IPOs are happening much later in the process now, because companies can raise capital privately. That means far more people in the listing are sitting on big profits and want to take some off the table.

OpenAI’s IPO and Apple’s lawsuit

Talking of IPOs — OpenAI is expected to list, but I think that might be a little delayed. The reason I say so is that Apple, on Friday, sued OpenAI for copyright infringement. Go read the stories; it is an amazing tale.

To be clear, we have only heard one side, and Apple has built a brilliant story — that is their job. Never get swayed by legal arguments until you have heard both sides, because on their own each is deeply compelling. You will read Apple’s version and think, dead to rights. Then you will hear OpenAI’s half and think, well, hang on. We do not know yet. We will in time.

Two things. First, this is about hardware. Does it delay OpenAI releasing hardware? Expectations were for an announcement this year or early next, and a release in 2027. You will be hard-pressed to do that if you are accused of stealing goods — because anything built on stolen work, if the case is lost, you have to throw away. Second, does it delay the IPO? Do you go to market and tell investors, look, maybe we stole stuff, maybe we didn’t, maybe we have hardware, maybe we don’t? I think this is bad for OpenAI — but again, let’s hear their side.

Purple Group buys Telescope AI

I want to touch on Purple Group. I hold shares in Purple, which owns EasyEquities. They have bought themselves an AI company — Telescope AI — announced on Monday.

I chatted with Charles Savage on my show this morning, so I have the details. It is $5m in cash, plus about $2m in shares (roughly 20 million shares). The whole deal is $10.75m, with the remaining $3.75m coming in tranches over a number of years — terms and conditions apply.

A lot of folks have asked: why? Could they have built it themselves? Sure — but it is harder and takes time. Charles Savage says they have been working with Telescope for a while already, so they know the people, the business and what is happening here, and that gives them a real benefit. I concur. In fact, they have already implemented some of the product into EasyEquities — if you ask for a basket of, say, pumpkin manufacturers, it will apparently return the relevant shares. I do not use the platform myself, but Charles says that is the deal.

The bigger question is where this puts them locally and perhaps globally, because Telescope already had IG Markets and a couple of other clients. It is not doing huge revenue, but it clearly has product. Now Charles and his team both have that product inside EasyEquities — which is a big deal — and, a step further, they could take it to other brokers and say, look what we have. For the moment that is a competitive advantage. Eventually it becomes table stakes and other brokers can build or buy.

That build-or-buy question is always there. I have worked for brokers and for corporates, and the instinct is often “we’ll build it, it’s cheaper.” It takes a lot longer, and it is only cheaper if it works — which it does not always do. I like this move for EasyEquities. Internally it gives them something, and it gives them something to sell to the market. Is it risky? Could it backfire? Absolutely — this could be a disaster. But it is only costing about R100m in cash and some 20 million shares, against roughly 1.4 billion shares in issue. Not significant. The risks are there, but I like it. The market pretty much shrugged it off — nice, but nothing thrilling.

Oil, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Let’s look at Brent. Unfortunately, Donald Trump’s ability to negotiate peace is about the same as his ability to write a book called The Art of the Deal — which, as I have pointed out before, he did not write; he had a ghostwriter. Peace in our time is off. Negotiations may be ongoing, but the conflict is back.

Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Trump says no, it is open — but you have to pay a 20% fee on all goods, which adds about $16 to a barrel of oil, or knocks about $16 off the producer’s profit. That runs into tens of millions per boat, whereas the Iranians wanted a million or two per boat to pass through. And to be clear — when Iran proposed tolling, the United States, Trump included, said you cannot toll a body of water. Which is true: you can toll the Suez Canal or the Panama Canal, because someone built them. A body of water, you cannot toll. Well — maybe you can.

Oil closed last night just below $84, traded up to $86 this afternoon, and I have $88 a barrel on my other screen. That puts it back into the resistance zone I have been talking about, and back where I feared oil would spend more of its time — in the 80s rather than the 70s.

Trump is finding himself unable to negotiate a peace deal. Is that made harder by Iran being unhappy at having been attacked? Of course. Iran is aggrieved. You do not attack a country, kill thousands of civilians including its leader, and then walk away as if nothing happened. So this is going to be messier and longer than I thought. I really did not expect to be sitting here in mid-July still having this conversation.

De Beers closes its last SA mine

Fun fact: De Beers is closing its last South African mine. It will not cut global diamond production, because they will lift output at other mines — but it is the end of an era.

The diamond industry is in so much trouble. [An analyst from PrimeXBT] reminded me this morning on my Moneyweb show that the last time we saw this much trouble in diamond prices was back in the 1960s, when Russia discovered diamonds and flooded the market. De Beers had to go to Russia and say, look, we need a plan — if you don’t flood the market, we can keep prices high. That worked for another 60 years. Here we are again. Diamonds are less in demand, and they can be made synthetically — I would not tell the difference, and neither would my wife. It is just another diamond. To be clear, when I got married there were no fake diamonds, so she has a real one. But I think this is the end of an industry. It will go kicking and screaming, but that is how it rolls.

Another fun fact: De Beers used to be listed. On the day it was delisted, I had bought a call warrant on De Beers. This was the olden days — you telephoned your broker, put the order through, and a few days later a broker’s note arrived in the post. A little while later I got a phone call from Peter Redman at the JSE with some questions. Shortly after I had bought the warrant, Anglo American had issued a takeout notice to buy all the De Beers shares it did not already own. The stock had galloped up 50-odd percent; my warrant had galloped up 400-odd percent — and I had bought it literally 10 minutes before the announcement. Peter wanted to know: what did I know? The answer was nothing. I was lucky. I was also terrified — I probably had a little lie-down, then sold the warrants, took the money and ran like heck.

Sappi, Mpact and the packaging trade

Let’s have a quick look at Sappi — the paper manufacturer we all know. They announced last Wednesday that their Somerset mill in North America was back up and running, and the market really liked it. But this is a horror stock. On that news the stock was up about 15%, yet zoom the chart all the way out and we are below 2008 levels — back at levels last seen in 1998, almost 30 years ago.

I do not like paper stocks and I do not particularly like Sappi — although they are no longer paper in the classic sense. They are packaging and much more; it is not literally rolls of paper. But the market absolutely hates this company, and has for a very long time. Is there value here? The low target is 979, Sappi is trading around 1113, the average is 1635 and the high is 2720 — with two holds and two strong sells. I have never seen two strong sells. Even the market is not convinced.

If you are looking for a packaging play, I think Mpact might be your better bet over Sappi or Mondi. Caxton is an option too, though I am not sure about the deep value there given all the cash on the balance sheet. Mpact, which owns a chunk of Caxton, is trading at just under R18, with targets around 3022 and only one sell recommendation. This is a stock on a dividend yield of about 3.3% and a P/E of about 5.5.

What bothers me is that Mpact does a lot of the cartons for citrus export — and the floods we have just seen in the Western Cape mean less citrus fruit. I know people in the region; orange orchards are gone. Not damaged, gone — and regrowing an orchard is a three-to-five-year process. So that is less demand for those products. Again, I do not like buying things that are going down; I like buying things that are going up. So for me this is a case of thanks, but not for me. I will pass for now, and we will find other ways to invest our hard-earned money that are not paper — because paper, it seems, is a horror, even as packaging.

Events, ETF database and the newsletter

Two events coming up. On 28 July at 11am, webcast only, “Talking Commodities” with Johan Erasmus from OneInvest. On 12 August, “Building Your ETF Portfolio — from one fund to ten,” a Power Hour at 5:30pm. You can attend by webcast or live at Standard Bank Head Office in Rosebank. Head to JustOneLap.com/events to book and for more information.

I want to touch on our ETF database — find it on the website’s top menu under “ETF database.” We have made a small tweak: we now show returns too — one, three and five year, and since inception (since listing), as an annualised percentage return, to the date of the minimum disclosure document (MDD). So it is not live pricing — for that, go to a pricing website or your broker — but it is a quick way to compare. The next update will add links to the MDD so you can download it yourself. We have also revamped the whole process to make it quicker, with the ability to compare and to create shareable links. You can say “show me your property ETFs,” get the local and offshore options, copy a shareable link and send it to someone. You can compare two side by side, and see size, tax-free eligibility, TERs and more — with more data coming.

A note on the newsletter: we changed email providers. Last Monday went great; this past Monday a lot of it landed in spam. We did send it — it goes every Monday at 7am, unless it is a public holiday, in which case it goes the next working day. If you did not get it, check your spam folder.

US 10-year yield and earnings season

A quick point on the US 10-year. Last year, when Trump was running his “liberation day” tariffs, the 10-year hit 4.5%, which spooked him into backing away. A year on, the yield is at 4.562%, and it was as high as 4.63% early this morning. This is a disaster, and it is costing the States a ton. They are not alone — the UK has the same problem, Japan does too. The numbers differ, but the problem is the same, and it is bad news for countries deep in debt.

And US earnings season kicks off Tuesday before market open — mostly the big banks. Earnings season is always a biggie, but expectations this time are for EPS growth of 23–24%. That is giant. Before the open today, the 14th: JP Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citi [and one name I had never heard of]. All those banks should do great — volatile markets, record highs, giant IPOs. Wednesday brings Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of New York, Kinder, United Airlines and more. That 23–24% headline EPS growth is a very big number, and it will take a lot of doing to get there.

Stocks on the move, and a new club

A quick couple of shares on the move. Mr Price — who knew — has been moving; it got back to resistance around 175, cleared it, and I think the next target is about 200. OUTsurance, which we have looked at before, is also nicely on the move, breaking through 75. On the downside: Mondi, no surprise there, and Absa — ABG just cannot catch a break. It was trying to make higher highs and higher lows, then crashed through all of it. Absa looks bleak here, which is where it has been for some time.

WorldWideMarkets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets Retail, and Shyft — the global money app. Enjoy the cheapest forex rates anytime, anywhere. Shyft, powered by Standard Bank.

Thanks to Shyft, and thanks to you for listening all the way to the end.

A quick bit of housekeeping. In addition to this podcast/video, we are starting a — for want of a better name — club. It will not cost you anything; I am going to get Standard Bank to fund it. The idea is closer engagement with my portfolio: what I am buying and selling. I talk about it here — Dell, Lockheed Martin and so on — but maybe we can get closer to the action. We will do monthly AMAs (ask me anything), and I will use it as a better conduit to share the AI work we are doing, whether research notes, reports or whatever. It will be a breakout from this, with its own email. More details to come — I do not have an ETA, but we will get it going.

Until then, my name is Simon. We will be back again next week. As always, look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else as well. Cheers all.