Local Inflation Update
- Inflation at 3.8% – lowest since March 2021 (3.5 years ago)
- Well below SARB’s target range midpoint of 4.5%
- Q3 year-on-year inflation at 4.3% (vs SARB’s expected 4.4%)
SA CPI YonY September 2024
November MPC Meeting Outlook
- Rate cut expected, but size uncertain
- Possibility of 25bps vs 50bps cut
- Factors affecting decision:
- Rand weakness
- Rising oil prices
- Global economic conditions
Important titbit about today’s SA headline CPI print. It meant that CPI rose by 4.3% y/y in Q3 2024. In Sept, SARB expected 4.4% for Q3, implying Sept print largely in line with their expectations. Therefore, today’s number will not change SARB’s thinking. Folks should calm down.
— Hugo Pienaar (@hugopien) October 23, 2024
Currency Markets
- US Dollar showing significant strength
- DXY moved from 100.42 to 104.33 (≈4% increase in one month)
- Strong capital flows into US
- Rand trading at R17.73
- Potential to move above R18
- Long-term targets of R16.80 and R15.50 looking less likely short-term
US Election Impact
- Potential implications of different outcomes
- Trump’s proposed policies could be inflationary:
- Planned tariffs
- Immigration restrictions
- Impact on labor markets and prices
Famous Brands Results Analysis Using AI
- Demonstration of AI analysis using Google Notebook LM
- Key findings:
- Leading Brands: Operating margin >50%
- Signature Brands: Operating margin -6.7%
- Manufacturing: Improved margins due to diesel savings
- Geographic performance varies:
- South Africa: 1.8% margin
- UK operations showing significant decline
- Cash generation at R498 million (7% decrease)
- Plans for 89 new stores
Chapters
00:00 Local Inflation and Economic Outlook
06:01 Using AI for Investment Analysis
12:06 Famous Brands Results Analysis
18:05 Comparative Analysis with SPUR
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Thursdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
