US 10-year highest yield since 2007 is bad news for almost everybody

Simon BrownJSE Direct, Latest

US 10-year yields highest since 2007

Bad news all round (unless you buying).

Almost 40% of US government debt expires in the next four years and will be re-issued at markedly higher rates, 9x higher in some cases.

Money flowing into US bonds for yield.

  • This sees less money entering the stock market
  • Sees a stronger US$ (check DXY strength, all currncies weaker against US$)

Hits valuations lower as higher rates makes cash worth less in the future, but so far the market has ignored this fact.

Simon Shares

  • The Top40 closed negative for the year on Tuesday. This after being almost +12% in late January and trading at all-time highs.
  • Top40 close 26 September 2023, negative YTD

    Top40 close 26 September 2023, negative YTD

    Fed and SARB hold rates steady – but very hawkish.

  • StatsSA “South African hotels recorded an occupancy rate of 47.3% in July 2023, up from 45.8% in June and 45.5% in May.”. But still below the ±50% pre-pandemic occupancy levels.

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