π Worldwide Markets Ep. 645 β 27 August 2025
π Key Themes This Week
- π Naspers share split β AGM approves a 5-for-1 split to make shares more affordable for smaller investors.
- π¬ Jackson Hole update β Jerome Powellβs last appearance as Fed Chair, shifting focus from inflation to jobs. Markets pricing in September & December rate cuts with high certainty.
- πΈ Trump & the Fed β Trump fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook β and pushes to pack the Fed with rate-cut friendly members.
- πΊπΈ Intel stake β Trump administration takes a 10% stake in Intel via the Chips Act, raising questions about βstate capitalism.β
- π Dollar weakness β Dollar index slides, Rand strengthens to R17.44, risk-on sentiment in global markets.
- π· UK debt crisis β 30-year gilt yields at levels last seen in 1998 (5.6%). Mounting debt costs threaten stability.
π Company Results & Market Moves
- π« ADvTech*
- Strong results: 5-year CAGR β Dividends +24%, Revenue +13%, EPS doubled.
- Enrolments still growing vs. competitor Curro shrinking.
- Expanding into tertiary education in Ghana π¬π.
- Solid valuation: PE ~15, dividend yield ~3%.
- π’ Grindrod
- Decent numbers, disposing businesses to strengthen balance sheet.
- Awarded 3rd-party rail access via Transnet π.
- Cheap valuation: PE ~8, Price/Book ~1.
- π’οΈ Sasol
- Results stronger than expected: Free cash flow R12bn (up from R7bn).
- Stock rallied past R120, eyeing R140.
- Needs stronger chemical markets, higher oil & weaker Rand for tailwinds.
- βοΈ Nvidia (results pending)
- Market eagerly awaiting numbers. Results due Wednesday aftermarket.
- πͺ Rheinmetall
- German defence stock up +160% YTD on European defence demand.
- Valuations stretched (PE 89 vs. mean 23). Possible overheated trade.
π Macro Watch
- π US inflation & rate cuts β Markets expect two cuts in 2024, possibly November too. Powell less worried about inflation at 2.5β3%.
- π¦ Tariffs & inflation β Spread over time, reducing immediate shock but sustaining price pressure.
- π΅ Debt & inflation β Inflation helps deflate $30T US debt mountain faster.
- π· UK bonds β Debt costs rising sharply, pushing the UK into deeper fiscal stress.
π Quick Hits
- π S&P 500 at 23x earnings β Historically, this leads to flat 10-year returns (Β±2%).
- π± Dollar trend β Weakening outlook continues, aligning with Trumpβs economic policy.
- π©πͺ Rheinmetall boom β Defence spending pushes stock sky-high, but risks of overheating.
- π ETF database update β Now includes active ETFs π justonelap.com/ETFdatabase.
- π₯ Power Hour β Live session Tuesday 17:30 SA time, replay available later.
ποΈ Host: Simon Brown
π
Recorded: Tuesday 26 August 2024
π‘ Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft app
π Markets are on a risk-on rally π, but with high valuations, debt risks, and political interference at central banks, caution remains the watchword.
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JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brownβs famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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JSE β The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
