π World Wide Markets Ep. 654 β 29 October 2025
ποΈ βGold took us up β¦ and gold will take us down.β
πͺ Gold Takes the JSE for a Ride
- Gold led the JSE to record highs β and now itβs leading it back down.
- Year-to-date returns:
- Gold +49 %, Harmony +87 %, Pan African +126 %, DRD +150 %, Gold Fields +162 %, AngloGold Ashanti* +167 %!
- Excluding dividends!
- Simon notes clear support around $3,600-3,800, with further downside likely.
- The Top 40 is up ~38 % YTD, but the Resources Index (Resi) is +93 % β remove that, and the marketβs ~20 %.
- Translation: half this yearβs gains came from gold βοΈ. When gold falls, the JSE will feel it.
- Simon spots a βkangaroo-tailβ reversal candle β 10 straight green months is unprecedented π.
- Expect short-term weakness but the long-term gold story isnβt over β deficits, inflation, and de-dollarization keep the bull case alive π°.
- For those who βmissedβ gold, this pullback may be your chance β scale in slowly rather than catching the knife πͺβοΈ.
Top40 Monthly chart 2025
π‘ Optasia IPO Extended
- Fintech AI & machine-learning listing β application deadline extended to Thursday 30 Oct (lunchtime).
- Simon applied after FirstRand took a 20.1 % stake at R 19, top of the range πΌ.
- Despite muted enthusiasm from guests on Stock Watch, the institutional interest makes it intriguing π€π.
- Allocation risk remains β expect to receive only a fraction ποΈ.
π WeBuyCars: Market Hits the Brakes
- Trading update disappointed; share price β13.5 %.
- HEPS: 222 β 226 c vs ~240 c consensus β‘οΈ P/E β 20 (βfairβ).
- Was pricey at ~30Γ earnings, now more realistic βοΈ.
- Chinese car imports may start competing at lower price points π¨π³ β potential pressure on used-car margins.
- Still, for those who missed the run, this could be a re-entry point π.
π Balwin Results
- Decent set of numbers β growth across Western Cape, KZN and Gauteng.
- No dividend π§ β debt reduction focus.
- Sector tailwinds: lower rates + improving bond approvals (Uber = Ooba).
- Strong demand for mid-tier and affordable housing ποΈ.
- Simon holds Calgro M3* in the same space.
βοΈ Commodities & PGMs Holding Up
- Anglo American & Kumba raise guidance π β stronger pricing and better rail flow.
- Valtera still recovering from floods, but higher PGM prices help.
- Platinum breakout βοΈ $ 1 550 + after a decade range bound 850 β 1 100.
- Palladium rebounding too ( $ 1 700 resistance ).
- Trend: higher highs and higher lows π.
πͺ Pick n Pay: Slow Road to Recovery
- Still loss-making but loss shrinking π.
- Adjusting for Boxer, cash and tax deferrals β valuation β βR 3 billion (cheap on paper).
- Sean Summers cautious: recovery will be slower than hoped.
- Needs to win market share from Shoprite* β a tough battle ππ.
π¨π³πΊπΈ US-China Trade & Tariffs
- Possible trade deal emerging π― β China may buy soybeans, ease rare-earth curbs.
- Perception = bullish for equities, bearish for gold (short term).
- US markets closing at record highs π β a deal would supercharge them.
- Meanwhile, US Supreme Court to decide whether Trump can impose tariffs unilaterally.
- Lower court said no β prediction markets expect heβll lose βοΈ.
- Outcome could remove tariffs entirely β massive implications for trade and exporters.
- Retroactive refunds possible? Unclear π΅β
π¦ Shyft Migration Update
- Standard Bank Online Share Trading, AutoShare Invest and WebTrader are migrating to the Shyft app π².
- Phase 2 migration this week β details at justonelap.com/powerhour.
- If you havenβt been contacted, your turn comes in 2026 (probably after March).
- Shyft offers cheapest Forex rates and multi-asset access globally ππ³.
π¬ Final Thought
βGold gave us the party β and now itβs calling last rounds.β
Expect volatility, opportunities, and reversals β but donβt lose the big picture.
Simon Brown
π§ Worldwide Markets Ep. 654 | Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft
π Look after yourself β and someone else too.
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JSE β The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brownβs famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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JSE β The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
