Gold took us up … and Gold will take us down

🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 654 — 29 October 2025
🎙️ “Gold took us up … and gold will take us down.”

🪙 Gold Takes the JSE for a Ride

Gold led the JSE to record highs — and now it’s leading it back down.
Year-to-date returns:
- Gold +49 %, Harmony +87 %, Pan African +126 %, DRD +150 %, Gold Fields +162 %, AngloGold Ashanti* +167 %!
- Excluding dividends!
Simon notes clear support around $3,600-3,800, with further downside likely.
The Top 40 is up ~38 % YTD, but the Resources Index (Resi) is +93 % — remove that, and the market’s ~20 %.
Translation: half this year’s gains came from gold ⛏️. When gold falls, the JSE will feel it.
Simon spots a “kangaroo-tail” reversal candle — 10 straight green months is unprecedented 📉.
Expect short-term weakness but the long-term gold story isn’t over — deficits, inflation, and de-dollarization keep the bull case alive 💰.
For those who “missed” gold, this pullback may be your chance — scale in slowly rather than catching the knife 🪙⚖️.

Top40 Monthly chart 2025

💡 Optasia IPO Extended

Fintech AI & machine-learning listing — application deadline extended to Thursday 30 Oct (lunchtime).
Simon applied after FirstRand took a 20.1 % stake at R 19, top of the range 💼.
Despite muted enthusiasm from guests on Stock Watch, the institutional interest makes it intriguing 🤖📊.
Allocation risk remains — expect to receive only a fraction 🎟️.

🚗 WeBuyCars: Market Hits the Brakes

Trading update disappointed; share price −13.5 %.
HEPS: 222 – 226 c vs ~240 c consensus ➡️ P/E ≈ 20 (“fair”).
Was pricey at ~30× earnings, now more realistic ⚖️.
Chinese car imports may start competing at lower price points 🇨🇳 → potential pressure on used-car margins.
Still, for those who missed the run, this could be a re-entry point 🚘.

🏠 Balwin Results

Decent set of numbers — growth across Western Cape, KZN and Gauteng.
No dividend 💧 → debt reduction focus.
Sector tailwinds: lower rates + improving bond approvals (Uber = Ooba).
Strong demand for mid-tier and affordable housing 🏗️.
Simon holds Calgro M3* in the same space.

⛏️ Commodities & PGMs Holding Up

Anglo American & Kumba raise guidance 👍 → stronger pricing and better rail flow.
Valtera still recovering from floods, but higher PGM prices help.
Platinum breakout ⚙️ $ 1 550 + after a decade range bound 850 – 1 100.
Palladium rebounding too ( $ 1 700 resistance ).
Trend: higher highs and higher lows 📈.

🏪 Pick n Pay: Slow Road to Recovery

Still loss-making but loss shrinking 📉.
Adjusting for Boxer, cash and tax deferrals → valuation ≈ –R 3 billion (cheap on paper).
Sean Summers cautious: recovery will be slower than hoped.
Needs to win market share from Shoprite* – a tough battle 🛒🆚.

🇨🇳🇺🇸 US-China Trade & Tariffs

Possible trade deal emerging 🎯 — China may buy soybeans, ease rare-earth curbs.
Perception = bullish for equities, bearish for gold (short term).
US markets closing at record highs 📈 — a deal would supercharge them.
Meanwhile, US Supreme Court to decide whether Trump can impose tariffs unilaterally.
- Lower court said no → prediction markets expect he’ll lose ⚖️.
- Outcome could remove tariffs entirely – massive implications for trade and exporters.
- Retroactive refunds possible? Unclear 💵❓

🏦 Shyft Migration Update

Standard Bank Online Share Trading, AutoShare Invest and WebTrader are migrating to the Shyft app 📲.
Phase 2 migration this week → details at justonelap.com/powerhour.
If you haven’t been contacted, your turn comes in 2026 (probably after March).
Shyft offers cheapest Forex rates and multi-asset access globally 🌍💳.

💬 Final Thought

“Gold gave us the party — and now it’s calling last rounds.”
Expect volatility, opportunities, and reversals — but don’t lose the big picture.

Simon Brown
🎧 Worldwide Markets Ep. 654 | Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft
💙 Look after yourself — and someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.

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