Best and worst JSE Stocks Over the Last Decade

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 658

📅 26 November 2025
🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown
💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🔥 This Week’s Big Themes

📊 JSE 10-year returns — miners dominate!
💽 Nvidia results: great numbers, strange market reaction
🥇 Harmony goes big on copper
🛠️ SA Inc sleeper stock ready to run with GDP recovery
📦 Process/Tencent update: super-app dreams + buybacks
🧠 Standard Bank launches new AI structured product
🎯 Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2026 (8 December)

🏭 Invicta Results — A Deep Value SA Inc Play

🏗️ Capital equipment group with exposure to SA, EU, US & Asia.
🌍 Tariffs hit their China → US shipments.
💰 Valuation extremely cheap:
- PE < 5
- Dividend yield > 3%
- Price-to-book: 0.7
🚧 SA’s weak GDP is the drag — but a recovery to 1.8% → 2% → 3% could turn this into a major SA Inc winner.
⚙️ Manufacturers sweating assets = more parts sold = small cyclical buffer.

🥢 Prosus / Naspers / Tencent — Cash Flow Turns Positive

💵 First positive free cash flow ever → +$59m vs -$104m.
💰 Billions of $ in cash reserves.
🍔 Food delivery (iFood, etc.) gaining scale + working toward a unified “super-app” model.
🧧 Still overwhelmingly driven by Tencent, but:
- 🎮 Tencent Games
- 🎵 Tencent Music
- 📺 Online ads
- 📱 WeChat ecosystem
- 🎥 Epic Games stake
- 🎞️ TikTok-style platforms
🔄 Ongoing share buybacks funded by selling Tencent into Hong Kong.

💻 Nvidia — Big Beat, Yet the Stock Falls?

📈 Beat on revenue, profit, and guidance — classic Nvidia.
🤔 But inventory jumped 32%, raising questions about demand visibility.
🏭 Meta reportedly exploring Google chips, with Amazon & Google also pushing their own silicon.
⚠️ Non-Nvidia chips = slower + higher power usage → still “B-grade”.
📉 Technically:
- Support at ~$180
- Next support ~$166
- Further support ~$150s
🎈 Bubble chatter now turning into “yes, it is a bubble” — but bubbles go UP before they pop.
📉 Mag-7 200-day MA signals:
- Only Meta sits below (-10%).
- Microsoft almost there (+1.5%).
- Amazon also soft (+5%).

🥇 Harmony — From Gold to Copper Giant?

🪙 Buying + building the Eva copper project in Australia.
🧱 Production cost: $2.50/lb copper (vs spot ~$4.50–$5.25).
⛏️ Harmony is shifting from pure gold → gold + copper, diversifying earnings.
🎙️ Jimmy Moyaha’s view:
- ✔️ Good blend of cyclical exposures
- ✔️ Some risk hedging between metals
⛏️ Deep SA gold mines = harder + costlier → copper is a logical hedge.
🔌 Copper = “metal of the future” (again) due to electrification & green tech.

🧠 Standard Bank AI Structured Product (Now Open!)

🧺 Basket:
- 🇺🇸 US Tech (NASDAQ)
- 🇨🇳 China Tech (KWEB)
💸 Auto-call feature:
- Year 1: If both indices are positive → 16% payout
- If not, each subsequent year with positivity → 16% per year
- Max 5-year horizon = up to 80%
🛡️ Capital protection:
- 100% capital back if indices not more than 30% down at maturity
💵 Minimum: R25,000 (+ R1,000 increments)
🗓️ Closing: 3 December 2025
📍 Available via OST or your stockbroker.

📈 10-Year JSE Winners — The Miners Dominate

🥇 Top Performers (per-year returns, excluding dividends)

🥇 Harmony Gold — 43.5% p.a. (3600% total!)
🥈 Gold Fields — 37%
🥉 Kumba Iron Ore — 33% (42% incl. dividends)
⚒️ Exxaro — 28% + 12% dividends
⚙️ Northam Platinum — 28.5%
🇬🇧 Argent — 27% (first non-miner)
💼 African Rainbow Capital / Valterra — 25%
🏦 Capitec — 22.5% + dividends → 24% total
🛠️ Bell Equipment, Merafe, Sibanye — strong ~19%+
🌐 Datatec — 19% + 17% dividends → 37%

📉 Big Losers (per-year declines)

🪓 Eskom (ELI / ACO) — -26%
📦 Nampak — -18%
🛏️ City Lodge — -14.5%
🧪 ArcelorMittal — -14%
💊 Aspen — -10%
🛢️ Sasol — -10%
🏘️ Balwin — -7%
🍔 Famous Brands — -7%
🧱 PPC — -5%
🛒 Pick n Pay — -5%
🏥 Netcare — -4.8%
🧺 Woolworths — 2.4% p.a. (only 1.4% incl. dividends)

📊 Top 40 — 10-Year Benchmark Performance

📈 118% total return over 10 years
📉 CAGR: 8.2% (≈10.5% incl. dividends)
📌 Best period: 11.6% (2019)
📌 Worst: ~3% during crisis
🎯 Real return (CPI ~5%): ≈7% — very respectable.

📣 Call to Action

💬 Tell us in the comments:

Which 10-year winners do you own?
Which stats shocked you most?
What’s your best-performing JSE stock of the last decade?

🙏 Thanks to Standard Bank & Shyft

💳 Travel. Shop. Spend. Invest.
📱 The global money app in your hand.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

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JSE Direct Podcast

Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brown’s famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.

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