๐ Worldwide Markets โ Episode 658
๐
26 November 2025
๐๏ธ Hosted by Simon Brown
๐ผ Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft
๐ฅ This Weekโs Big Themes
- ๐ JSE 10-year returns โ miners dominate!
- ๐ฝ Nvidia results: great numbers, strange market reaction
- ๐ฅ Harmony goes big on copper
- ๐ ๏ธ SA Inc sleeper stock ready to run with GDP recovery
- ๐ฆ Process/Tencent update: super-app dreams + buybacks
- ๐ง Standard Bank launches new AI structured product
- ๐ฏ Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2026 (8 December)
๐ญ Invicta Results โ A Deep Value SA Inc Play
- ๐๏ธ Capital equipment group with exposure to SA, EU, US & Asia.
- ๐ Tariffs hit their China โ US shipments.
- ๐ฐ Valuation extremely cheap:
- PE < 5
- Dividend yield > 3%
- Price-to-book: 0.7
- ๐ง SAโs weak GDP is the drag โ but a recovery to 1.8% โ 2% โ 3% could turn this into a major SA Inc winner.
- โ๏ธ Manufacturers sweating assets = more parts sold = small cyclical buffer.
๐ฅข Prosus / Naspers / Tencent โ Cash Flow Turns Positive
- ๐ต First positive free cash flow ever โ +$59m vs -$104m.
- ๐ฐ Billions of $ in cash reserves.
- ๐ Food delivery (iFood, etc.) gaining scale + working toward a unified โsuper-appโ model.
- ๐งง Still overwhelmingly driven by Tencent, but:
- ๐ฎ Tencent Games
- ๐ต Tencent Music
- ๐บ Online ads
- ๐ฑ WeChat ecosystem
- ๐ฅ Epic Games stake
- ๐๏ธ TikTok-style platforms
- ๐ Ongoing share buybacks funded by selling Tencent into Hong Kong.
๐ป Nvidia โ Big Beat, Yet the Stock Falls?
- ๐ Beat on revenue, profit, and guidance โ classic Nvidia.
- ๐ค But inventory jumped 32%, raising questions about demand visibility.
- ๐ญ Meta reportedly exploring Google chips, with Amazon & Google also pushing their own silicon.
- โ ๏ธ Non-Nvidia chips = slower + higher power usage โ still โB-gradeโ.
- ๐ Technically:
- Support at ~$180
- Next support ~$166
- Further support ~$150s
- ๐ Bubble chatter now turning into โyes, it is a bubbleโ โ but bubbles go UP before they pop.
- ๐ Mag-7 200-day MA signals:
- Only Meta sits below (-10%).
- Microsoft almost there (+1.5%).
- Amazon also soft (+5%).
๐ฅ Harmony โ From Gold to Copper Giant?
- ๐ช Buying + building the Eva copper project in Australia.
- ๐งฑ Production cost: $2.50/lb copper (vs spot ~$4.50โ$5.25).
- โ๏ธ Harmony is shifting from pure gold โ gold + copper, diversifying earnings.
- ๐๏ธ Jimmy Moyahaโs view:
- โ๏ธ Good blend of cyclical exposures
- โ๏ธ Some risk hedging between metals
- โ๏ธ Deep SA gold mines = harder + costlier โ copper is a logical hedge.
- ๐ Copper = โmetal of the futureโ (again) due to electrification & green tech.
๐ง Standard Bank AI Structured Product (Now Open!)
- ๐งบ Basket:
- ๐บ๐ธ US Tech (NASDAQ)
- ๐จ๐ณ China Tech (KWEB)
- ๐ธ Auto-call feature:
- Year 1: If both indices are positive โ 16% payout
- If not, each subsequent year with positivity โ 16% per year
- Max 5-year horizon = up to 80%
- ๐ก๏ธ Capital protection:
- 100% capital back if indices not more than 30% down at maturity
- ๐ต Minimum: R25,000 (+ R1,000 increments)
- ๐๏ธ Closing: 3 December 2025
- ๐ Available via OST or your stockbroker.
๐ 10-Year JSE Winners โ The Miners Dominate
๐ฅ Top Performers (per-year returns, excluding dividends)
- ๐ฅ Harmony Gold โ 43.5% p.a. (3600% total!)
- ๐ฅ Gold Fields โ 37%
- ๐ฅ Kumba Iron Ore โ 33% (42% incl. dividends)
- โ๏ธ Exxaro โ 28% + 12% dividends
- โ๏ธ Northam Platinum โ 28.5%
- ๐ฌ๐ง Argent โ 27% (first non-miner)
- ๐ผ African Rainbow Capital / Valterraย โ 25%
- ๐ฆ Capitec โ 22.5% + dividends โ 24% total
- ๐ ๏ธ Bell Equipment, Merafe, Sibanye โ strong ~19%+
- ๐ Datatec โ 19% + 17% dividends โ 37%
๐ Big Losers (per-year declines)
- ๐ช Eskom (ELI / ACO) โ -26%
- ๐ฆ Nampak โ -18%
- ๐๏ธ City Lodge โ -14.5%
- ๐งช ArcelorMittal โ -14%
- ๐ Aspen โ -10%
- ๐ข๏ธ Sasol โ -10%
- ๐๏ธ Balwin โ -7%
- ๐ Famous Brands โ -7%
- ๐งฑ PPC โ -5%
- ๐ Pick n Pay โ -5%
- ๐ฅ Netcare โ -4.8%
- ๐งบ Woolworths โ 2.4% p.a. (only 1.4% incl. dividends)
๐ Top 40 โ 10-Year Benchmark Performance
- ๐ 118% total return over 10 years
- ๐ CAGR: 8.2% (โ10.5% incl. dividends)
- ๐ Best period: 11.6% (2019)
- ๐ Worst: ~3% during crisis
- ๐ฏ Real return (CPI ~5%): โ7% โ very respectable.
๐ฃ Call to Action
๐ฌ Tell us in the comments:
- Which 10-year winners do you own?
- Which stats shocked you most?
- Whatโs your best-performing JSE stock of the last decade?
๐ Thanks to Standard Bank & Shyft
๐ณ Travel. Shop. Spend. Invest.
๐ฑ The global money app in your hand.
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JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Wednesdays are all about hard-core investing and trading with Simon Brownโs famous JSE Direct podcast. JSE Direct started life on ClassicFM in July 2008 and became a podcast in 2011. Every week Simon shares his views on the state of global economies, individual shares and events moving markets.
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JSE โ The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
