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Simon Shares
- Load shedding is back and reports are it’s going to be around until maybe 2025 as Eskom needs R200billion. This hurts, we got our of recession yesterday with QonQ GDP growth at 2.2%, but we’re going to struggle to grow without electricity. Importantly remember that the majority of the Top40 earnings are from outside of South Africa. So don’t confuse the Top40 with the local economy.
- I missed the return of Pembury (JSE code: PEM) to trading on the JSE. A number of people have asked my view on the stock and it’s a simple one. Avoid at all costs. They listed via attempted hype and management have only covered themselves in rubbish since then. Ideas are great but execution is what maters and this team can’t execute (heck they can’t even get results out in time).
- NaspersN (JSE code: NPN) results show Multi Choice is not the dead duck everybody claims. Sure some pressure on premium but they are growing subscribers across the continent and the listing next year will offer investors a great niche sector – buying of course is valuation dependent. Important lesson here is ignore the loud mouths on Twitter.
- Unpacking the Satrix INDI25 ETF, a monster long-term performer.
- Upcoming events
- 06 December ~ Position your portfolio for 2019
Everything is falling
Over the weekend it looked like we may get trade peace in our time – but the market called Trumps bluff and sold off aggressively on Tuesday evening and we followed on Wednesday.
US 10 year T-Bills, which is what I have been watching, also sold off to trade down at 2.92%. This confuses as I was watching this for the bear to start, but only at 3.5%. But it seems it couldn’t wait.
The trade war with China is hurting and while Trump is saying lots, the evidence on the ground does not support his Tweets and so markets are pricing in worsening trade wars. This will hurt the two largest global economies (USA and China) and the rest of us will suffer as a result. EMs may escape the worst of it, but we’re not immune.
At the end of the day I do expect some sort of trade peace. This is Trumps style, bully and berate before finally finding a deal (we saw this with NAFTA and Canada / Mexico). But it gets real messy until the final deal.
So I expect weaker US markets into the new year, and frankly I expect the major indices to hit bear turf (20% off the highs). This is not a train smash and once the bear has been tagged markets will likely rally, helped with some trade peace.
Locally we will not escape the turmoil but our market is much closer to bear turf having tagged it 24 October at 43,822 (Top40). S&P500 is bear at 2,352 (latest close 2,700) and Nasdaq 6,152 (latest close 6,795). So about another 10% down from here. FAANGs are already in bear market as I mentioned last week.
This is not the end of the world, market go up and they go down. This sell off is not driven by a financial crisis as we saw in 2008/9, it is being driven by a bullying president and US markets that have gone without a bear in almost ten years (since lows of March 2009).
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